You can bet on the Super Bowl, but not predict it on Polymarket. Here’s why
The Super Bowl is more than just a football game; it’s a cultural phenomenon that captures the attention of the world, offering a glimpse into American pop culture, from Hollywood and music to advertising and market trends. The Super Bowl betting scene has exploded in recent years, making it a can’t-miss event for casual and serious bettors alike.
More than a championship, the Super Bowl has become a global stage where sports, entertainment, and commerce collide. The ads and halftime show often generate as much buzz as the game itself, with brands and artists using the platform to create memorable, culture-defining moments. With a guaranteed massive audience, these performances and commercials shape public conversation long after the final whistle.
This year marks the 60th edition of the Super Bowl, and the excitement is already building. Super Bowl LX is not just a battle on the field but also a major commercial showdown, especially between the traditional football betting sites in the US and the burgeoning prediction market platforms vying for legitimacy and relevance.
Celebrity-Fueled Sportsbook Ads
Sportsbook commercials have become a staple of the Super Bowl broadcast. This year’s game will feature ads from DraftKings and Fanatics, with Fanatics making its Super Bowl debut.
DraftKings Sportsbook
Pros and Cons
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18+. New players only. T&Cs Apply gambleaware.org
For instance, Fanatics Sportsbook has tapped Kendall Jenner for its campaign, playing on the “Kardashian Kurse” narrative—a pop culture trope that’s been making the rounds. This is a classic Super Bowl ad strategy: grab a big name, a trending topic, and run with it.
However, not every major player is buying a slot during the game. FanDuel, a familiar face in the last three Super Bowls, is sitting this one out. But don’t count them out entirely. The brand will still be a major presence through a week-long marketing blitz leading up to kickoff.
FanDuel Sportsbook
Pros and Cons
18+. New players only. T&Cs Apply gambleaware.org
With billions expected to be wagered on the Super Bowl, many new bettors are also searching for spread betting explained guides before placing wagers. As the US market matures, operators are getting smarter about where they spend their big-money budgets.
Where Are the Prediction Markets?
While sportsbook ads will be everywhere, you won’t see any from prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have been a hot topic in sports and finance circles, are barred from advertising during Super Bowl LX.
Front Office Sports reports that prediction markets are on the NFL’s list of prohibited advertising categories, right alongside tobacco and firearms. While other leagues like the NHL and MLS have been more open, the NFL has held a firm line, banning prediction market commercials from its broadcasts since the 2025 season.
Why the hard stance? League officials are concerned about the lack of safeguards that are standard in regulated sports betting, such as restrictions on easily manipulated markets and the use of official league data. From the NFL’s perspective, prediction markets come with too many unanswered questions about integrity and consumer protection.
A Battle for Influence
But this is more than just a regulatory squabble; it’s a battle for influence. For decades, the Super Bowl has been the crown jewel of sports betting. Now, with the debate over prediction markets vs sports betting heating up, platforms where users trade contracts on outcomes are posing a real threat to traditional sportsbooks
The Regulatory Maze
Regulation is at the heart of this conflict. At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees event contracts and treats some prediction markets as derivatives exchanges. But the agency’s stance has been anything but stable.
In 2024, the CFTC proposed a rule that would have severely limited sports and political contracts—the very markets driving user growth. That proposal now seems to be on the back burner. The commission’s current leadership has signaled a change of course, indicating it will withdraw the earlier rule and reconsider its role in ongoing legal battles.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig recently affirmed the commission’s jurisdiction over commodity derivatives and its intent to review its involvement in federal court cases. But states remain wary.
Sports betting sites in the US operate under strict regulations and generate significant tax revenue. Allowing prediction markets to operate under a separate federal framework could undermine that entire system. As a result, several states have moved to classify prediction markets as a form of gambling.
Information or Entertainment?
This all boils down to a fundamental question: are prediction markets a tool for gathering information, or just another form of entertainment? Supporters argue that these markets aggregate collective knowledge, and understanding how prediction markets work helps explain why many users trust them over polls or expert opinions. Regulators, on the other hand, argue that when it comes to emotionally charged events like the Super Bowl, the informational value takes a backseat to pure speculation.
For now, prediction markets are in a strange limbo. They’re influential and growing fast, but still hemmed in by legal and commercial roadblocks. And that’s why you can bet on the Super Bowl, but you can’t officially predict the winner on a prediction market.
FAQ
Prediction markets are on the NFL’s list of prohibited advertising categories, and their regulatory status is still being debated at both the federal and state levels.
It’s complicated. Some, like Kalshi, are federally regulated by the CFTC. However, many states are pushing back, seeking to classify them as gambling, which would subject them to state-level regulations.
In traditional betting, you place a wager on a fixed-odds outcome. In a prediction market, you trade contracts based on the likelihood of an event happening, with the contract’s value fluctuating as sentiment changes. The conversation around prediction markets vs traditional sportsbooks is a hot one right now.
Most major football betting sites in the US and football betting apps in the US will offer a wide range of prop bets for the Super Bowl. Check out our reviews of the best Super Bowl betting sites like DraftKings and FanDuel to see what they have to offer.
