Chinese premium mass surge lifts Macau gaming forecast again
Investment bank JP Morgan has upgraded its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the second half of 2025 (2H25), now expecting a 13 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase. This represents an increase from the four percent growth recorded in the first half of 2025 (1H25).
The bank projects gaming revenues to climb 12 percent in the July–September(3Q25) period, followed by a stronger 16 percent growth in the final quarter (4Q25) of the year. The latest revision follows three consecutive months of performance exceeding market expectations, with both June and July reporting a GGR surge of 19 percent compared with the same months last year.
Confidence & events drive market upswing
According to JP Morgan analysts, this surge is fuelled by stronger investor confidence, boosted by stock market gains in China, Hong Kong, and the United States. The city’s recent liquidity boom has also made it easier to access Hong Kong dollars (HK$), reflected in oversubscribed initial public offerings and a sharp fall in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR).
The bank also pointed to the role of high-profile concerts and events in attracting visitors, with players using such occasions as an opportunity for more frequent trips. This, analysts say, has helped Macau capture a larger share of visitors’ time and spending.
JP Morgan also downplayed concerns that the trend is unsustainable, noting that Macau’s growth cycles typically last three to four quarters. The bank explained that “loss-chasing” behaviour, where gamblers return to recoup losses, and repeat visits from winners create a self-reinforcing demand loop. With the April–June quarter (2Q25) marking the first major upswing since the post-pandemic reopening, analysts believe the current momentum may continue until at least the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26).
For the first seven months of 2025, Macau’s GGR reached MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion), up 6.5 percent YoY. Economic experts attribute much of this recovery to the renewed spending power of mainland Chinese business owners, many of whom were previously affected by economic downturns.
Chinese tourists return en masse
Chinese tourists, who constitute the majority of Macau’s premium mass and high-end customer base, have been returning to gaming tables with increased confidence and higher wagers. As per a report by GGRAsia, analysts believe that some are now surpassing their pre-pandemic expenditure levels, driven by improvements in China’s real estate, manufacturing, and trade sectors.
Analysts observe that Macau’s integrated resorts function as both gaming and networking venues, where business talks and entertainment merge. The sector’s recovery has also led to an increase in non-gaming income, driven by higher expenditures on luxury shopping, fine dining, and entertainment.
Looking ahead, industry experts expect the Chinese premium mass segment to remain a stable driver of revenue, with loyalty to specific properties and frequent visits supporting sustained growth. For casino operators, this group offers higher profit margins, as their spending extends beyond the gaming floor into premium experiences and services.
