Finland’s new affiliate reality: 2026 insights, trends, and the road ahead

Finland’s gambling reform is no longer a theoretical discussion about whether change will happen. The debate has shifted toward timing, structure, and control. For affiliates, that shift marks the beginning of a new reality, one defined less by speculation and more by preparation.

While much of the public focus remains on operators and the fate of Veikkaus’ monopoly, affiliates sit at the centre of several unresolved questions. How marketing will be regulated, who carries liability, and what role third-party media will be allowed to play are all issues that remain open as Finland moves toward a licensing-based system.

With the reform now expected to take effect in 2026 or potentially July 2027, affiliates are entering a transition phase that will shape the market long before the first licences are issued.

From monopoly control to managed competition

For years, Finland’s approach to gambling regulation has been built around a simple assumption. Keeping the market under a single, state-run operator was seen as the best way to protect consumers. Veikkaus was therefore given a dual role, running gambling products while also acting as a safeguard, with tight limits on advertising and outside promotion.

That model is now widely seen as outdated. The government has formally acknowledged that offshore operators already attract Finnish players and that the existing system struggles to channel demand into a controlled environment. As outlined by the Finnish government, the reform aims to introduce licensing to “open the betting and online casino games market to competition.”

This statement captures the political logic behind the reform. Rather than trying to eliminate competition, the state intends to regulate it. For affiliates, this marks a fundamental shift. Instead of operating in a grey zone tolerated but not recognised, affiliates are expected to become visible actors within a regulated ecosystem.

Why affiliates are no longer a side issue

In earlier stages of the reform debate, affiliates were rarely mentioned directly. Attention focused on operators, taxation, and the future of Veikkaus. That has begun to change.

Regulators across Europe have learned that advertising and acquisition do not stop at operator boundaries. Affiliates influence consumer behaviour, brand exposure, and channelisation just as strongly as licensed platforms. In Finland’s case, ignoring affiliates would risk recreating the very loopholes the reform is meant to close.

This creates a new affiliate reality. Media companies, comparison sites, and content-driven publishers are no longer peripheral to the system. They are part of the market infrastructure, whether lawmakers explicitly design for them or not.

A cautious timeline reshapes affiliate strategy

With licensing potentially pushed back to mid-2027, the pressure on affiliates has shifted. Instead of preparing for a fixed start, many are now trying to manage an extended period where timelines remain unclear.

For some, this has slowed investment. Content production, localisation, and technical development all require confidence in future returns. For others, the extended timeline has created space to plan appropriately.

This divide is already shaping the market. Affiliates with long-term strategies are treating Finland as a media and audience-building opportunity rather than an immediate revenue source. Those looking for short-term acquisition gains are more likely to shift focus elsewhere.

The result is a quiet filtering process that may ultimately benefit the regulated market. When licensing arrives, the affiliates that remain active are likely to be those best aligned with compliance expectations.

Legal clarity remains the missing piece

One of the most significant challenges for affiliates is the lack of detailed legal guidance. While the direction of reform is clear, the mechanics are not.

Key questions remain unanswered:

• Will affiliates require direct licensing or registration?
• How will responsibility be shared between operators and third-party marketers?
• What constitutes permissible advertising under the new framework?

Finnish iGaming lawyer and market expert Antti Koivula has repeatedly highlighted the scale and significance of the reform. Commenting on its commercial impact, he noted, “We’re talking hundreds of millions.”

That observation underscores why legal clarity matters. The reform is not a minor regulatory adjustment. It affects major revenue flows, long-term business models, and enforcement priorities. Without precise rules, compliant affiliates risk uncertainty while less transparent actors exploit ambiguity.

As a result, many affiliates are already aligning their operations with stricter European standards in anticipation of tighter oversight.

Changing expectations around content and messaging

The most significant trend regarding licensing is the strategy of creating content. An example of this trend is the change to a service-oriented content strategy from an emphasis on promotional messaging for affiliate licensees who are entering the regulated Finnish market.

This includes:

• Educational guides focused on games and odds
• Clear responsible gambling messaging
• Transparent explanations of bonuses and terms

The growing focus on clarity has also increased demand for standalone bonus information, as seen on, for example, OnlineCasinoSuomi, one of the biggest casino comparison sites in Finland.

These trends are not unique to Finland, but the country’s public health focus makes them especially relevant. Regulators are likely to scrutinise not just what affiliates promote, but how they communicate with audiences.

Affiliates that view themselves as media publishers rather than marketers are better positioned in this environment. The new reality rewards credibility over volume.

Industry sentiment points to structured growth

The pace may have been slow as far as reforms are concerned, but leaders in the industry still retain confidence in the long-term trend of Finland. The sector has also voiced its support for the concept of licensing, stating it adds stability, consistency and aids in attracting investments into Finland as well.

Finnish industry voices, including Tomi Huttunen, have also pointed to licensing as a necessary foundation for a more predictable and sustainable market.

From an affiliate perspective, a regulated system offers several advantages. Commercial relationships become formalised, compliance expectations are clearer, and reputational risk is reduced. Instead of operating in a tolerated grey area, affiliates gain defined roles within the market.

This does not mean the market will be easy. Competition will increase, compliance costs will rise, and margins may tighten. However, the trade-off is legitimacy, something Finland’s affiliate ecosystem has never fully enjoyed.

How Finland compares to other Nordic markets

When people in the affiliate space talk about Finland, Sweden and Denmark usually come up in the same conversation. Both countries moved to licensing earlier, and the outcomes were noticeably different.

Sweden’s early phase was marked by uncertainty and heavy enforcement, which pushed the market toward consolidation fairly quickly. Denmark took a steadier route, rolling out clearer rules and bringing affiliates into the licensed system with fewer shocks.

Finland appears to be studying both examples. The extended timeline suggests a desire to avoid early mistakes, particularly around advertising and enforcement. For affiliates, this reinforces the importance of patience and adaptability.

The Nordic experience shows that once licensing begins, change happens quickly. Preparation done in advance often determines success in the first years of regulation.

Preparing for the road ahead

As Finland works through the next phase of reform, affiliates are settling into a quieter period. There are unlikely to be major announcements in the coming months, but the decisions made during this time will have a real impact on how the market eventually takes shape.

Affiliates that succeed in Finland’s new reality are likely to:

• Invest in quality Finnish-language content
• Prioritise transparency and responsible messaging
• Build compliance processes before they are required

This approach may feel conservative, but it aligns closely with the values underpinning Finland’s reform.

A market defined by intention rather than speed

What is happening in Finland is not about moving as fast as possible. The reform is being handled carefully, with political and public health considerations weighing heavily on each step.

For affiliates, that changes the equation. Being early matters less than being ready. Those who take the time to understand what regulators are trying to achieve, rather than focusing only on dates, are likely to be in a stronger position when the market opens.

The new affiliate reality in Finland is already taking shape. By 2026, the foundations will be set. What follows will depend on who chose to build carefully while others waited for certainty.

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