Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are continuing to accept users from India despite fresh warnings from the country’s technology ministry that their services violate new online gaming regulations, according to a Bloomberg report. SiGMA News independently verified that it was possible to log in and create an account on Kalshi.
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) said users were still accessing “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms” despite the implementation of the country’s new Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules (PROGA), which took effect on 1 May. According to local news outlets, the ministry specifically named Polymarket and “other similar sites” in an advisory posted on its website, signalling a broader crackdown on prediction market platforms operating in India.
India warns VPN providers over prediction market access
In a separate letter dated 25 April, the ministry warned virtual private network providers that they could face “consequential legal action” if they continued enabling Indian users to access blocked prediction market and online betting platforms.
Although some Indian internet service providers have already restricted access to Polymarket’s website, users have reportedly continued bypassing the blocks using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and Domain Name System (DNS) changes. MeitY had previously warned of regulatory action against Kalshi and Polymarket, following a rise in their use by Indian users for speculative betting. The move came amid growing concerns over participation in event-based betting linked to elections and major sporting tournaments, including the Indian Premier League.
India’s PROGA law bans ‘online money games’
The regulatory action stems from India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules (PROGA), a nationwide framework passed last year that imposes sweeping restrictions on online money games. The rules clearly prohibit online money games in India. The government said such games are already explicitly banned under the law. Officials stated that any game involving real money stakes falls under this category and will not be allowed to operate. The new online gaming law has already significantly disrupted India’s domestic real-money gaming industry.
Kalshi & @Polymarket openly defying
— Animesh 🕉️ (@web3_animesh) May 19, 2026
India’s ban on prediction markets MEITY sent the advisory last month calling them illegal users in India are still trading like nothing happened 2026 is wild.
The future of markets doesn’t ask for permission. pic.twitter.com/gT055DbJxG
Major operators, including Dream11, WinZO, Zupee, PokerBaazi and Games24x7, suspended real-money operations following the rollout of the framework. Payment gateways have also been affected. Industry estimates suggested that gateways may see up to a 15 percent drop in annual top-line growth as real-money gaming transactions disappear. Overall online transaction volumes in India could fall by at least Rs 30,000 crore ($3.6 billion) over 2026 next year due to the ban, with smaller companies facing the most pressure.
A survey by public policy think tank CUTS International shows that use of offshore betting platforms rose from about 68.3 percent to 82 percent after India’s prohibition on online real-money games (RMG) took effect. The findings also reveal that many users are spending more money and engaging more intensely on foreign sites after the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 (PROGA) was implemented on 1 October 2025. The survey found dramatic increases in both frequency of use and time spent per session on offshore platforms. The proportion of users who now access offshore betting daily jumped to 42 percent from just 3.4 percent before the ban.
Prediction market industry continues rapid growth
Despite increasing regulatory scrutiny in India and other jurisdictions, prediction markets continue expanding globally. Prediction markets are on track for explosive growth, with total trading volumes projected to reach $1 trillion annually by 2030, according to analysis from investment firm Bernstein. The sector, led largely by Kalshi and Polymarket, generated more than $63.5 billion in trading volume during 2025, up from annual trading volume of $15.8 billion in 2024, according to data cited by Decrypt.
Kalshi’s legal counsel, Valeria Vouterakou, told Bloomberg the company remains in communication with Indian authorities and has not been instructed to cease operations. “We will comply with the government’s requests should they make them,” Vouterakou said. She added that Kalshi continues onboarding new customers and requires identity verification during registration.
A spokesperson for Polymarket told Bloomberg that the company is “committed to complying with applicable laws and regulations across all jurisdictions in which it operates” and maintains geoblocking restrictions where required. India does not currently appear on Polymarket’s restricted-country list.
IPL trading drives Indian prediction market activity
Cricket has emerged as one of the largest drivers of India-linked prediction market trading activity. According to Asia Gaming Brief, trading volume on Indian Premier League (IPL) matches has reportedly approached half the weekly volume generated by US Major League Baseball contracts on Kalshi since the current IPL season began in March.
The rapid growth of sports-related prediction markets has intensified concerns among Indian regulators over investor protection, gambling risks and the legal status of event-based trading products. Even before PROGA came into force, the Securities and Exchange Board of India had warned investors that “opinion trading” products lacked investor protection mechanisms and operated outside its regulatory oversight. In March this year, Polymarket hosted real-money markets on the outcomes of India’s 2026 state assembly elections, allowing users worldwide to trade contracts tied to results in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry.
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