Macau eyes $11.6B gaming tax in 2026 amid uncertainty
Macau expects to collect MOP92.7 billion ($11.6 billion) in taxes from public concessions in 2026, according to the Macau SAR 2026 Policy Address. The government notes that most of this amount will come from gaming taxes. If achieved, concession revenue will account for about 80 percent of the city’s estimated total tax intake of MOP114.8 billion ($14.4 billion) next year. The forecast points to a slight decline from the MOP93.3 billion ($11.7 billion) projected for 2025.
Earlier that week, Macau’s job market had shown mixed signals, gaming jobs were declining, while foreign businesses warned of a shortage of skilled talent in non-gaming sectors. Experts said the contrast reflected a “labour paradox” in the casino hub.
Backbone of public revenue
Public concession revenue in Macau is split between gaming concessions and public utilities, according to Asia Gaming Brief. Gaming remains the dominant contributor. For the first ten months of 2025, gaming taxes reached MOP77.5 billion ($9.68 billion). This reflects a 6.1 percent increase compared with the same period in 2024. The amount made up 78.9 percent of total government revenue of MOP92.6 billion ($11.6 billion) recorded during the period.
Under Macau’s ten year gaming concession framework that took effect on 1 January 2023, the effective tax rate on casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) stands at 40 percent. The government set its gaming duty revenue target at MOP93.1 billion ($11.6 billion) for 2025. By the end of October the city had already achieved 87.5 percent of this goal.
GGR below target
Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai recently highlighted concerns about the GGR outlook. In his Policy Address he stated that GGR remains below projections for 2025. He added that the city is unlikely to reach its target by year end. According to him, the sector continues to face pressure from external economic conditions that have limited its growth.
The government usually publishes an annual estimate for the following year’s GGR. For 2026 it decided not to provide one. Officials said global economic trends and regional market conditions remain unstable and unpredictable. This uncertainty makes forecasting difficult.
Earlier in 2024 the government cut its GGR projection for 2025 by about 5 percent. The estimate was lowered from MOP240 billion ($30.0 billion) to MOP228 billion ($28.5 billion). The revision followed several months of slower than expected market performance.
Tourist arrivals rise
Macau has seen steady tourism growth through 2024 and 2025. Visitor numbers returned to strong levels after pandemic related restrictions eased. Even so, not all of this activity has translated into higher gaming revenue. Industry data shows that spending patterns among tourists have diversified across retail and entertainment. This has reduced the direct lift to GGR during key peak periods.
Weather events have also weighed on performance. Typhoons in recent months disrupted travel and casino operations. These interruptions occurred during traditionally strong weeks for gaming activity. The setbacks contributed to slower revenue growth and limited the city’s ability to close the gap with its earlier GGR targets.
Gambling ad ban with possible exceptions
Recently, the Macau government had finalised a draft bill to tighten its advertising laws, confirming plans to impose a sweeping ban on gambling-related promotions, with limited exceptions for industry events and responsible-gambling initiatives.
The position had been outlined in a summary report released after a public consultation on 12 November 2025 regarding amendments to the city’s three-decade-old advertising law. On the same day, the Executive Council announced that the draft bill had been completed and would soon be submitted to the Legislative Assembly for review.
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