Investment bank CLSA has upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for 2025 to $30.1 billion, marking a 7.6 percent increase year-on-year. The revised projection reflects rising tourist arrivals, a stronger Chinese renminbi, and strong showings by top casino operators including Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, according to CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.
The new Macau GGR forecast for 2025 brings the full recovery timeline forward by a year—from 2026 to 2025. Previously, analysts expected the post-pandemic rebound to be complete by 2026. However, improved fundamentals and macroeconomic tailwinds are accelerating the recovery. CLSA’s projection now places Macau’s gaming industry within striking distance of its 2019 highs, re-establishing the city as one of the world’s leading casino hubs.
Q2 2025 gaming revenue surges 8.3%
Macau’s GGR for Q2 2025 surged by 8.3 percent year-on-year to MOP61.1 billion ($7.6 billion), underpinned by consistent daily takings and strong holiday traffic. In June alone, daily GGR reached MOP684 million ($85 million), a number that CLSA flagged as particularly promising, though warned it may not be fully sustainable. Meanwhile, between April and May 2025, Macau welcomed 6.46 million tourists — a 22 percent increase year-on-year. That figure equates to roughly 95 percent of the volume seen during the same period in 2019.
The current forecast is up 5.6 percent from the previous GGR forecast. On the other hand, analysts have trimmed the 2026 projection by 2.2 percent. CLSA now expects 2026 GGR to grow 2 percent to HK$239.7 billion. This follows the stronger 2025 performance.
June figures up, casino stocks rally
For June, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 19 percent year-on-year rise in total GGR for June 2025. For the month, GGR totaled MOP21.06 billion, continuing the city’s recent growth spurt. The GGR recorded in June was only slightly lower than May, when it totaled MOP21.19 billion, reaching a post-pandemic high. The strong momentum saw stocks of major casino operators with operations in the Chinese territory surge. Leading the gains was Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts, both shares rise 8 percent in recent trading, according to data from Investopedia. Melco Resorts & Entertainment jumped 7 percent. All three companies are among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks for Tuesday.
For the first half of 2025, Macau’s cumulative gaming revenue reached MOP118.8 billion, up 4.4 percent year-on-year. After a sluggish start to the year, the sector has gained steam thanks to the May Day Golden Week and a continued wave of tourism. Adding to the momentum, the return of superstar performer Jacky Cheung has further boosted visitation. Cheung is currently in the middle of a nine-show residency at Galaxy Arena, which has contributed to increased foot traffic. According to investment bank Citi, these shows are generating unexpected GGR gains, suggesting that Macau gaming revenue in 2025 could exceed even revised forecasts.
