Macau’s casino industry is on track for stronger-than-expected growth in 2026, according to new projections from CBRE Equity Research. The firm expects gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise by 8.3 per cent year-on-year, exceeding the current market consensus by 2 percentage points. This forecast builds on Macau’s 2025 performance, when total GGR reached MOP247.40 billion ($30.64 billion).
Strong start
The first quarter of 2026 has already set a positive tone for the sector. According to GGR Asia, the gross gaming revenue for the three months ending March 31 reached MOP65.87 billion ($8.16 billion). This marks a 14.3 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.
CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh noted that this early momentum places the market in a strong position to outperform expectations. They stated that full-year growth is likely to surpass the consensus forecast of 6 per cent.
For the annual growth rate to fall back to consensus levels, revenue growth would need to slow significantly in the remaining months. CBRE estimates that GGR growth would have to drop to around 3.5 per cent for the rest of the year. The analysts believe such a slowdown is unlikely given current trends.
China’s economic support
A key driver behind the optimistic outlook is China’s broader economic performance. The country is targeting GDP growth of between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent. This is expected to support consumer spending, including travel and entertainment.
CBRE highlighted that Macau’s gaming revenue typically grows faster than mainland China’s GDP during recovery periods. Targeted stimulus measures are also helping boost consumer confidence, which in turn supports casino activity in Macau.
The analysts expect this trend to continue throughout 2026, contributing to stronger overall revenue growth for the sector.
EBITDA growth likely to continue
The increase in gaming revenue is also expected to support earnings growth. CBRE stated that the scale of topline growth seen in the first quarter should be sufficient to drive continued expansion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for most operators.
This applies even to companies that may have sacrificed some market share in order to improve profitability. The report suggests that revenue growth remains strong enough to offset such strategic adjustments.
Stabilising costs and competition
The report also points to signs of stabilisation in operating costs and competitive pressures. In late 2025, there were concerns about rising expenses and increased promotional activity among operators.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, market-wide commission spending rose by 21 per cent year-on-year, reaching 19.2 per cent of GGR. Non-tax operating expenses also increased by 8.6 per cent during the same period.
However, CBRE now expects these pressures to ease. The analysts noted that promotional activity is currently driven by a limited number of operators aiming to regain market share. While such activity may remain elevated, it is expected to stabilise over the course of 2026.
Operating costs are also likely to normalise as major concession-related investments have already been incorporated into companies’ cost structures.
Focus on entertainment and mass market
Investment in non-gaming attractions continues to play an important role in Macau’s recovery. CBRE highlighted ongoing spending on entertainment offerings as a key factor in attracting more visitors.
This is particularly relevant for the mass market segment, which has not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Increased entertainment options are expected to draw a broader range of tourists and support further growth in visitor numbers.
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