Cambodia-based casino operator NagaCorp is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic earnings levels in the near term, despite posting improving financial results and securing a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings.
The ratings agency upgraded NagaCorp’s long-term issuer credit rating to ‘B+’ from ‘B’ and assigned a stable outlook. S&P said the upgrade reflects the company’s stronger balance sheet, low leverage and solid cash reserves. It also forecast annual earnings growth of between 5 per cent and 6 per cent across 2026 and 2027, supported by stable operations in Cambodia’s gaming market.
However, S&P said the casino operator’s business performance still remains well below levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Revenue and EBITDA remain below 2019 levels
According to S&P, NagaCorp generated revenue of US$713 million and EBITDA of $404 million in 2025. The agency said these figures represented around 40 per cent and 60 per cent respectively of the company’s 2019 performance.
In 2019, NagaCorp recorded revenue of US$1.8 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $667 million. At the time, its referral VIP business contributed around 70 per cent of gross gaming revenue.
S&P said the referral VIP segment, which relied heavily on junket operators, is unlikely to recover. The agency noted that the gaming industry across Asia has changed significantly since the pandemic, particularly in the high roller market.
“Despite a notable turnaround in 2025, operations still lag pre-pandemic levels, with a full recovery likely to be protracted,” S&P said, as reported by Asia Gaming Brief.
Strong cash position supports rating upgrade
S&P highlighted NagaCorp’s improved financial position as a key factor behind the rating upgrade. The agency said the company ended 2025 with cash reserves of about $372 million.
NagaCorp also had only a $70 million shareholder loan outstanding, which is due in May 2026.
The agency forecast the company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio would remain at around 0.3 times through 2026 and 2027. S&P said the company’s low leverage and available liquidity provide protection against downside risks in the market.
The stable outlook reflects expectations that NagaCorp will maintain steady operations over the next 12 months due to its established presence in Cambodia’s casino industry.
Capital spending and shareholder returns under focus
While S&P acknowledged the company’s stronger financial position, it also pointed to future capital spending and shareholder returns as potential risks.
The ratings agency estimated capital expenditure would reach about $170 million in 2026 before increasing sharply to around $380 million in 2027. The increase is linked to the planned development of the proposed Naga3 project.
S&P also estimated annual shareholder returns of between $100 million and $120 million during the same period.
The agency said aggressive spending or larger shareholder payouts could place pressure on the company’s rating if they weaken liquidity levels or push debt-to-EBITDA above three times.
Cambodia market remains key growth driver
S&P said NagaCorp’s entrenched position in Cambodia’s gaming market is expected to support stable business performance over the coming year.
The company operates NagaWorld, the largest integrated casino resort in Cambodia, and remains heavily dependent on the Phnom Penh gaming market.
Although earnings are improving gradually, S&P’s latest assessment indicates that a return to pre-pandemic revenue and profit levels may take longer than previously expected, particularly without a recovery in the VIP junket business that once drove the majority of the company’s gaming income.
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