World Cup 2026: ADM and European regulators take aim at prediction markets
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is not only the biggest football event of the year. For the betting industry and regulatory authorities, it is also a crucial test, as increased interest in sport naturally drives higher betting activity. For regulators, however, the concern is not limited to traditional channels of licensed gambling. Prediction markets are also under scrutiny. These platforms allow users to bet on or take positions on the outcome of real-world events, including sporting, political, and geopolitical events.
In this context, nine European gambling authorities have chosen to act in a coordinated way. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland have signed a joint statement to strengthen cooperation during the men’s 2026 FIFA World Cup, protect users, and monitor compliance with national regulations. The signatories also include Italy’s competent authority for public gambling, represented by the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency (Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli – ADM).
The warning from European regulators is blunt: technological innovation cannot be used as a shortcut to circumvent gambling rules, consumer protection, and betting integrity.
Prediction markets and the 2026 World Cup: why the issue concerns regulators
Prediction markets are often presented as information markets, forecasting tools, or products linked to the trading of future events. Their operation, however, closely resembles some dynamics typical of gambling. Users can buy and sell positions based on whether a specific event occurs, with the price reflecting the probability the market assigns to that outcome.
In the case of the 2026 World Cup, the risk is particularly evident. A global competition, followed by millions of people and accompanied by enormous media coverage, generates a constant flow of attention, emotional engagement and demand for products linked to sporting results. It is precisely in this context that prediction markets can find fertile ground, particularly amongst young adults, who are drawn to platforms that are accessible, continuous and often presented in language more akin to trading than to traditional betting.
According to European regulators, the central issue is not only the innovative nature of these tools, but also the way they are offered in individual markets. When a platform allows users to risk money on the outcome of uncertain events without complying with the licensing and regulatory requirements of the jurisdiction in which it operates, the issue directly concerns player protection.
Crux of protection: continuous access, weak safeguards, and insufficient checks
The joint statement highlights a number of specific concerns. In countries where they are not authorised, these platforms can operate without the safeguards required of regulated gambling operators. The risk increases when services remain available 24 hours a day, do not include built-in limits on stakes beyond the amount actually risked by the user, do not impose time limits, and rely on minimal checks of players’ identities and ages.
This combination is a cause for concern because it can turn the gaming experience into a continuous cycle. Visibility, accessibility, and virality fuel a mechanism that drives users to return to the platform time and again, tracking price fluctuations, real-time updates, and social dynamics, much like those found in digital markets.
The risk of addiction becomes even more real when there is no regulatory framework in place to impose limits, controls and safeguards. In the legal market, operators are required to comply with obligations relating to customer identification, the prevention of underage gambling, responsible advertising, betting integrity and the protection of vulnerable players. Outside this framework, such safeguards may be absent or prove insufficient.
Economic and legal front: blocked funds, fraud, and volatility
The authorities’ concerns are not limited to addiction. Unauthorised prediction markets can also expose users to significant economic and legal risks. The regulators’ statement specifically cites the risk of illegality, the possible blocking of funds, fraud based on privileged information, and high financial volatility.
This is a sensitive issue because many of these platforms operate in a grey area between gambling, digital finance and the events markets. On the one hand, they claim to aggregate information and produce collective predictions. On the other hand, they allow users to invest money in uncertain future outcomes, often in contexts where national authorities have not issued specific authorisations.
For European regulators, this distinction is decisive. Prediction markets must comply with the licensing and regulatory requirements of each jurisdiction. Technology, the commercial interface, or financial language cannot replace the compliance obligations required in the gambling sector.
Enhanced supervision during the World Cup
During the 2026 FIFA World Cup period, the nine authorities have announced their intention to work in close coordination. Cooperation will cover both oversight of licensed gambling operators, which must comply with rules on advertising, betting integrity, and player protection, and any action against prediction market platforms that do not comply with local regulations.
The decision to act together reflects a now obvious need: the digital market does not stop at national borders. A platform can reach users in several countries by utilising social media channels, sports partnerships and global marketing campaigns, making it more difficult for a single authority to act in isolation.
This creates a need for more intensive exchanges of information, expertise, and operational best practices. Cross-border cooperation therefore becomes a concrete regulatory lever, especially during global sporting events that attract high volumes of traffic and attention.
Call to federations, leagues, and clubs
A significant section of the statement directly addresses the world of sport. The authorities call on federations, leagues, and teams to verify that these platforms comply with the rules in force in their jurisdictions before entering into commercial agreements or major partnerships.
This warning goes beyond mere formality. In modern football, sponsorship deals and digital partnerships can offer emerging brands significant visibility. However, when a partner operates in sensitive sectors such as betting, prediction markets, or products linked to sporting events, due diligence becomes essential.
For sports clubs and organisations, associating their brand with unauthorised platforms can entail reputational, legal and regulatory risks. For the authorities, on the other hand, it means ensuring that the sport’s popularity does not become a means of legitimising operators who do not comply with national rules.
A signal set to last beyond the tournament
The joint position does not appear likely to end with the World Cup. Regulators have stated their aim of strengthening cooperation beyond competition through the exchange of information, experience, and best practices. Many of the authorities involved will also intensify communication on social media during the tournament to promote safe gambling.
The case of prediction markets raises a broader issue for the iGaming and betting industry: how to regulate hybrid digital products that straddle the worlds of entertainment, finance, sport and information. The European response, at least at this stage, appears to be geared towards prudence, consumer protection and compliance with national regulations.
For the ADM and the other regulators involved, the 2026 World Cup therefore becomes a line of demarcation. On one side is the licensed market, which must comply with strict rules. On the other is an ecosystem of innovative platforms that are not always compatible with the obligations set by individual jurisdictions.
This article was originally published on the Italian SiGMA News page on 19 June 2026.
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