Japan’s prediction market startups are gaining traction by sidestepping gambling laws, using redeemable points instead of cash wagers to let users bet on real-world events legally.
The model is attracting strong demand, with leading platform Miraima nearing 1 million monthly users, highlighting growing consumer appetite for prediction markets in a country that has historically remained closed to operators such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Unlike traditional prediction market platforms, Japanese startups have built their products around reward points that can later be exchanged for shopping vouchers, digital gift cards or loyalty programme rewards. The model mirrors the indirect reward structure used by Japan’s pachinko industry, where rewards are exchanged indirectly rather than paid as winnings. The pachinko industry has long operated within the country’s restrictive gambling framework.
The rapid growth of these platforms is creating fresh regulatory questions as policymakers, legal experts and gaming companies debate whether existing laws are equipped to deal with a new generation of event-based forecasting products.
Japan prediction markets attract nearly 1 million users
The rise of Miraima and competing platform Poyp suggests there is significant demand for prediction-based products among Japanese consumers. Users can make predictions on sporting events, political developments, stock market movements and entertainment outcomes using virtual points earned through app activity, advertising engagement and in-app games. Successful predictions generate additional points that can later be redeemed for rewards through major digital ecosystems.
According to Bloomberg, Miraima has accumulated nearly 1 million monthly active users within months of launching, aided by major sporting events and growing public awareness of prediction market products.
Voucher rewards create a regulatory grey area
The success of Japan prediction markets is largely built on one key distinction: users are not directly staking money. Instead, platforms operate through reward systems that convert engagement into redeemable points, creating a structure that founders argue falls outside traditional gambling restrictions.
Legal experts, however, have suggested that regulators may eventually scrutinise these products more closely as adoption grows. While users are not risking cash in the same way as they would on traditional prediction market platforms, critics argue that the gamified pursuit of rewards can still encourage addictive behaviours and may ultimately attract regulatory attention.
The participation of younger users could further complicate the debate, particularly as some point-based services currently operate without age restrictions that are standard on many real-money prediction platforms.
While Japan’s approach focuses on point-based participation rather than direct cash betting, players interested in regulated real-money gaming experiences often compare international options through guides covering the best mobile online casinos.
Global regulators continue to examine prediction markets
Japan’s emerging prediction market sector is developing against a backdrop of increasing international scrutiny. Several countries across Asia have moved to restrict access to prediction market operators in recent years. Authorities in India have sought to block access to platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, while regulators in other jurisdictions have raised concerns about gambling risks, market integrity and consumer protection.
On 17 June, regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland signed a joint declaration pledging closer cooperation against prediction market operators that fail to comply with local laws. The announcement coincided with the FIFA World Cup, a period expected to generate significant betting and speculative trading activity.
Even in markets where prediction platforms are permitted, policymakers continue to debate questions surrounding insider information, market manipulation and regulatory oversight. These concerns have intensified as prediction markets have become increasingly popular for forecasting political elections, financial outcomes and geopolitical events.
Industry observers note that prediction markets often sit at the intersection of gambling, financial services and forecasting, making them difficult to classify under existing legal frameworks.
Japan’s gaming culture creates fertile ground
The popularity of Japan prediction markets also reflects the country’s longstanding relationship with gaming, reward programmes and speculative entertainment.
Japan remains one of the world’s largest gaming markets and is home to a deeply established culture of loyalty-point collection. Consumers routinely use rewards ecosystems operated by major digital payment and retail platforms, creating an environment where point-based prediction products feel familiar rather than disruptive.
At the same time, the country is preparing for the launch of its first integrated casino resort in Osaka, scheduled to open in 2030, signalling a gradual evolution in attitudes towards regulated gaming activities. Yet authorities have simultaneously tightened restrictions on online gambling and offshore casino activity.
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