Kenya’s gambling industry at a turning point: Report
NEXT.io’s report on Kenya describes how the country is undergoing its most significant transformation in decades. Once marked by volatility and abrupt policy shifts, the country’s gambling sector is now entering a digital-first era shaped by sweeping regulation, rising investor confidence, and a maturing consumer base.
For the first time in more than half a century, Kenya has rewritten its gambling laws. According to the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya (GRAK), it now oversees licencing, advertising, and responsible gambling. By July 2026, all licences will transition to the new framework, with extensions of up to three years offering greater stability.
The reforms introduce stricter compliance rules, higher capital thresholds, and a centralised self-exclusion system. As one legal expert told NEXT.io: “Under the current framework, it was possible to obtain a licence with less than $20,000. Under the new requirements, that figure has, in some cases, risen to over $20 million.”
With this move, smaller operators could be pushed out, opening the door for larger, well-capitalised entrants.
Market size and structure
Kenya ranks as Africa’s third-largest gambling market, behind South Africa and Nigeria. Estimates of gross gaming revenue (GGR) range from $500 million to $1 billion annually, underscoring the scale of the market. With about 8 million active players, engagement levels are among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.
One main driver is mobile-first betting, which is powered by the country’s mobile money ecosystem. Additionally, brands like Betika, GameMania, and Odibets, all based locally, have control of nearly half of the market. Meanwhile, international operators such as SportPesa, BetPawa, and MozzartBet are already available in the country.
Unlike in other African markets where betting shops dominate, retail betting is ranked second in Kenya.
Investor confidence returns
With the country establishing clearer rules and longer licence terms, investor interest revived. For one, mergers and acquisitions are expected to improve the competitive landscape. But challenges remain. Draft regulations are being proposed that require a 30 per cent Kenyan shareholding and real-time monitoring systems. These measures may slow implementation, while phased rollouts could be considered.
In addition, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Kenya on its grey list in 2024, raising concerns about compliance with global anti-money laundering standards.
Strategic challenges
Despite the latest situation bringing hope, the country’s gambling market is difficult to enter. There are strict advertising rules, entrenched operators, and hidden costs that pose barriers for newcomers. But success is still possible when one familiarises themselves with the local knowledge, strong partnerships, and products geared to mobile-first consumers.
But industry insiders have also cautioned against over-reliance on sports betting. Alternative formats, like crash games, are gaining popularity. They have shed light on the shift in consumer preferences. According to a source from NEXT.io, they noted that: “Simplicity wins. If the experience isn’t smooth, users won’t stay.”
Outlook
Kenya’s gambling sector highlights both its growth and its status as a test case. While casino gaming is forecast to expand significantly, sports betting remains dominant. However, it is complemented by new formats.
The report also points to the fiscal uncertainty that continues to loom. For one, the proposed 2026 Financial Bill also includes reinstating a 20 per cent withholding tax on player winnings. This could reintroduce volatility into a market that has only recently stabilised.
For investors and operators, Kenya offers opportunity, but only for those prepared to navigate its evolving rules and realities.
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