Macau’s casino industry recorded a major milestone in the second quarter of 2025, delivering its strongest performance since the pandemic began. Total gaming revenue reached MOP61.26 billion ($7.57 billion) for the quarter, marking a 9 percent year-on-year increase, according to new figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ).
Baccarat dominates revenue share in Q2
The quarterly surge was led by bacccarat. Total baccarat revenue climbed to MOP51.91 billion, up 8 percent when comparing to the same period last year. This is the game’s best month since Q4 2019 and signals a robust return of high-roller activity.
Within this, VIP baccarat revenue soared to MOP16.33 billion, representing a 22.7 percent increase year-on-year. While high-stakes play remain below pre-pandemic highs, it is seeing a significant rebound. Meanwhile, mass-market baccarat contributed MOP35.6 billion, accounting for 58.2 percent of overall gaming revenue in the second quarter.
Slot machine revenue also posted gains, with revenue jumping 9.4 percent year-on-year to reach MOP3.51 billion. Cumulatively, for the first half of the year, casinos generated MOP118.8 billion. This marks a 4.4 percent increase from the same period last year. A strong tourism rebound was behind the surge in gaming revenues. From January to May, Macau welcomed 16.3 million visitors, nearly equalling the total for the first half of 2024.
VIP Segment Recovery Still Ongoing
Despite the improving quarterly figures, the VIP sector has not fully recovered to pre-COVID levels. In 2019, VIP baccarat accounted for 46.2 percent of all casino revenue. That figure has dropped to 26.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025. Decline of junket operators along with the implementation of tighter regulatory oversight in the Special Administrative Region (SAR) is being attributed for the shift. As a result, casino operators are increasingly moving towards direct VIP engagement models.
Macau surpasses 60% of govt’s 2025 GGR target by mid-year
As of mid-July, Macau’s gross gaming revenue had already reached MOP132.35 billion, surpassing 61 percent of the government’s revised full-year GGR target. According to DICJ data, casinos generated MOP18.6 billion in GGR in July so far—an 11.6 percent year-on-year increase.
In June, officials trimmed their 2025 GGR projection by 5 percent—from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion—citing macroeconomic headwinds and changing tourist behaviour. The direct gaming tax revenue forecast was also cut by 5 percent to MOP79.8 billion, down from MOP84 billion
Analysts remain bullish despite government revision
However, global financial institutions remain optimistic. In a recent note, investment bank Jefferies recently upgraded its 2025 GGR forecast for Macau to MOP237 billion, in line with broader market sentiment but exceeding the official projection. Jefferies analysts cited strong H1 results and particularly resilient figures in May and June as the basis for the upward revision.
Similarly, another leading investment bank, CLSA, also revised its GGR forecast for Macau in early June. CLSA now expects GGR to hit US$30.1 billion in 2025, representing a 7.6 percent year-on-year rise. The upgrade reflects growing tourist arrivals, a strengthening Chinese yuan, and strong performances from leading casino operators such as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, according to CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang.
