Macau collected MOP51.19 billion ($6.3 billion) in gaming taxes during the first six months of 2026, up 13.1 per cent from a year earlier, according to the government’s latest budget execution data.
The increase helped lift the city’s fiscal surplus to MOP13.28 billion ($1.6 billion) by 30 June, even as casino revenue growth showed signs of slowing in the second quarter. Gaming taxes remained the backbone of Macau’s public finances, contributing about 86 per cent of total government revenue during the period.
Gaming taxes continue to dominate government revenue
Total public revenue reached MOP59.54 billion ($7.4 billion) in the first half, an increase of 12.5 per cent compared with the same period in 2025. Of that amount, MOP51.19 billion came from gaming taxes.
The figures reflect continued strength in Macau’s casino sector. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) totalled MOP126.90 billion ($15.74 billion) in the first six months of the year, despite a weaker June. Under Macau’s current gaming concession system, casino operators pay a 40 per cent tax on gross gaming revenue, making the industry the government’s largest source of income.
Fiscal surplus already above annual target
The fiscal surplus stood at MOP13.28 billion ($1.6 billion) at the end of June, up 14.7 per cent from MOP11.58 billion ($1.4 billion) a year earlier. That figure has already comfortably surpassed the government’s full-year surplus target of MOP5.22 billion ($646 million). At the halfway point of the year, the surplus was already more than double the amount budgeted for all of 2026.
Gaming tax receipts in June reached MOP8.67 billion ($1.07 billion), an increase of 6.3 per cent compared with the same month last year. The rise came even as Macau’s casino sector experienced a slowdown.
Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) showed June GGR fell 12.1 per cent year-on-year to MOP18.52 billion ($2.30 billion). Revenue was also down 18.1 per cent from May’s MOP22.61 billion ($2.80 billion), marking the first monthly decline since January 2025. Analysts have linked the weakness to the FIFA World Cup, which has diverted spending and attention away from casino gaming, particularly among premium customers.
Government spending also increases
Public expenditure reached MOP46.26 billion ($5.7 billion) during the first half, up 11.9 per cent from a year earlier. Transfers, subsidies and grants accounted for much of the increase, rising to MOP27.27 billion ($3.4 billion) from MOP20.68 billion ($2.6 billion) in the corresponding period of 2025. Even with higher spending, revenue growth was sufficient to widen the fiscal surplus.
Macau’s 2026 budget forecasts MOP92.53 billion ($11.5 billion) in gaming tax revenue for the full year. By the end of June, authorities had already collected 55.3 per cent of that target, leaving tax receipts slightly ahead of schedule. The result follows strong growth earlier in the year. Gaming tax revenue for the first five months of 2026 rose 14.6 per cent year-on-year to MOP42.52 billion.
Analysts remain cautious on Macau’s outlook
The strong tax performance comes against a backdrop of growing caution among analysts about Macau’s near-term gaming outlook. Citigroup recently described the second quarter as the industry’s “toughest” since reopening, forecasting EBITDA of $1.92 billion, down 7 per cent year-on-year.
The bank estimated second-quarter GGR at MOP61.03 billion ($7.6 billion), 7 per cent lower than the previous quarter and the weakest quarterly result since early 2025. According to analysts, the expanded FIFA World Cup and unfavourable VIP hold rates weighed on casino earnings and gaming activity among higher-value players.
There have also been signs of softer demand in the premium mass segment. Citigroup reported a 38 per cent year-on-year decline in premium mass wagers during June, while several brokerages have reduced their Macau GGR forecasts for 2026.
Macquarie now expects full-year GGR growth of 5.4 per cent, down from its previous estimate of 7.7 per cent. S&P Global Ratings continues to forecast growth of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent. Despite the recent slowdown, Citigroup expects gaming revenue to improve once the FIFA World Cup concludes, supported by tourism, concerts and a busy events calendar in the second half of the year.
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