Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is on track to decline in July despite signs that casino activity is beginning to recover as disruption from the FIFA World Cup fades.
According to Citigroup, Macau GGR is expected to fall 5 per cent year-on-year to MOP21.0 billion ($2.60 billion) this month. The brokerage estimates that casinos generated approximately MOP12.05 billion ($1.49 billion) during the first 19 days of July, with daily revenue trends improving as the tournament nears its conclusion.
The latest forecast comes after a difficult second quarter for Macau’s gaming sector, which saw VIP baccarat revenue decline, premium mass gaming activity weaken and monthly casino revenue post its first year-on-year contraction in almost 18 months.
Daily casino revenue improves as World Cup disruption fades
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau estimated, as cited by Asia Gaming Brief, that average daily GGR reached approximately MOP679 million ($84.0 million) during the week beginning 13 July, up 9 per cent from MOP621 million ($76.8 million) in the previous week.
The analysts attributed part of the improvement to a lighter FIFA World Cup schedule. Only three matches were played during the latest reporting week compared with eight matches during the previous week, reducing competition for consumer spending and entertainment budgets.
According to industry checks cited by Citigroup, VIP rolling chip volume increased by between zero and 2 per cent week-on-week, while mass-market gaming revenue remained broadly stable. VIP hold rates were also reported to be stronger than in the previous week. Despite the recent improvement, Citigroup maintained its forecast for July GGR of MOP21.0 billion, implying average daily revenue of approximately MOP746 million ($92.3 million) during the remainder of the month.
FIFA World Cup weighs on Macau gaming performance
The World Cup has emerged as one of the biggest challenges facing Macau casinos in 2026. Macquarie recently lowered its third-quarter Macau GGR forecast from 6 per cent growth to 2 per cent growth year-on-year and reduced its full-year 2026 forecast from 7.7 per cent growth to 5.4 per cent growth. Analysts said the tournament’s expanded format, featuring 104 matches compared with 64 matches in 2018, diverted discretionary spending away from casinos and towards sports betting and related activities.
The impact was particularly visible in June when Macau GGR fell 12.1 per cent year-on-year to MOP18.52 billion ($2.29 billion), marking the market’s first monthly revenue decline since January 2025. Revenue was also down 18.1 per cent compared with May.
VIP baccarat revenue declines in second quarter
Data released by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) showed VIP baccarat GGR fell 18.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter during the second quarter of 2026. The segment generated MOP15.90 billion ($1.97 billion) between April and June, down 2.6 per cent from the same period last year.
VIP baccarat accounted for 26.1 per cent of Macau’s total gaming revenue during the quarter, compared with 29.7 per cent in the first quarter and 26.7 per cent a year earlier.
The decline suggests continued softness in VIP gaming demand, a trend analysts have linked to weaker premium player activity and lower VIP hold rates during the World Cup period.
However, first-half performance remained positive. VIP baccarat revenue reached MOP35.48 billion ($4.40 billion) during the first six months of 2026, up 15.2 per cent from MOP30.79 billion ($3.81 billion) in the corresponding period of 2025.
Mass baccarat remains Macau’s main revenue driver
Mass baccarat generated MOP35.17 billion ($4.36 billion) during the second quarter, representing 57.6 per cent of total gaming revenue. Revenue declined 1.2 per cent year-on-year and 3.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter but remained Macau’s largest gaming segment.
Slot machines delivered one of the strongest performances among major gaming categories, generating MOP4.11 billion ($509 million). Revenue increased 17 per cent year-on-year and 3.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter. The live multi-game segment generated MOP1.30 billion ($161 million), rising 3.1 per cent year-on-year and 3.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter.
Gaming tax revenue remains strong despite softer casino demand
Despite weaker gaming activity in recent months, Macau’s public finances continue to benefit from casino tax receipts. The government collected MOP51.19 billion ($6.3 billion) in gaming taxes during the first half of 2026, an increase of 13.1 per cent compared with the same period last year.
Gaming taxes accounted for approximately 86 per cent of total government revenue and helped lift Macau’s fiscal surplus to MOP13.28 billion ($1.6 billion) by the end of June. Under Macau’s concession framework, casino operators pay a 40 per cent tax on gross gaming revenue, making the industry the primary source of government income.
Analysts expect recovery after the World Cup
With the FIFA World Cup now concluded, analysts expect Macau’s gaming market to regain momentum during the second half of the year. Citigroup said casino activity should recover relatively quickly, supported by upcoming entertainment events and the return of normal visitation patterns. Morgan Stanley has also suggested that GGR growth could improve once tournament-related disruptions subside.
Although analysts have become more cautious on short-term revenue growth, Macau’s gaming market remains ahead of last year’s levels. First-half casino revenue reached MOP126.90 billion ($15.70 billion), up 6.8 per cent year-on-year.
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