Macau’s gaming sector likely to outperform after ‘golden week’
Macau’s gaming industry appears well on course to surpass expectations in 2025, after a surge in tourist arrivals during the recent “Golden Week” holidays fuelled optimism for a strong fourth quarter, according to research by CreditSights. Analysts believe the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is on a steady growth path, supported by a robust flow of tourists from mainland China, despite previous setbacks from typhoons and temporary casino closures.
During the eight-day Golden Week period from 1 to 8 October, 2025, which was extended by one day to coincide with the Mid-Autumn Festival, Macau saw strong visitor numbers. According to the report, which was published on 10 October 2025, 1.14 million people came to the city overall, which is a 17 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase over 2024. Average daily arrivals stood at 143,000, a two percent increase from last year.
Weekend elevated expectations
The busiest day was 4 October 2025, when 191,000 tourists entered Macau – the highest daily figure on record. For a more direct comparison, CreditSights examined data for the traditional seven-day period from 1 to 7 October, which showed a seven percent YoY increase in total visitors to 1.06 million. The figure also surpassed pre-pandemic levels, exceeding the 2019 Golden Week count by eight percent.
Mainland Chinese tourists accounted for the bulk of arrivals, making up around 83 percent of total visitors at nearly 880,000. This segment grew by eight percent from 2024 and stood 11 percent higher than the same period in 2019, suggesting continued confidence among Chinese travellers in returning to Macau’s casinos and entertainment hubs.
While visitor volumes have strengthened, gaming performance in September was slightly softer. Data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau showed total GGR rose six percent YoY to MOP 18.3 billion (€2.1 billion), below market expectations of a nine percent increase and weaker than the 17 percent average growth seen between June and August.
CreditSights attributed the slowdown to seasonal patterns and the impact of Super Typhoon Ragasa, which temporarily shut down casinos for about 1.5 days between 23 and 25 September. Despite the setback, the city’s year-to-date performance remains steady, with GGR up seven percent in the first nine months of 2025 to MOP 181.3 billion (€20.6 billion). That figure already represents 80 percent of Macau’s annual target of MOP 228 billion (€25.9 billion).
GGR levels to surpass?
The research firm expects the strong Golden Week turnout to support October’s GGR and believes Macau is in a “decent position” to achieve or even surpass its 2025 goal. To meet the official target, the city needs to maintain a monthly average of MOP 15.6 billion (€1.8 billion) in the final quarter, significantly below the current average of MOP 20.1 billion (€2.3 billion). Analysts also noted that if momentum continues, the government’s stretch goal of MOP 240 billion (€27.3 billion) could be within reach by year-end.
Although occasional disruptions from cyclones and seasonal challenges continue to disrupt the sector, Macau’s recovery appears intact. With visitor numbers climbing and spending levels surging, the city’s gaming operators may yet deliver one of their strongest years since the pandemic.
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