Polymarket prepares for US return amid 2025 NFL season
Polymarket is returning to the U.S. market ahead of the 2025 NFL season. Previously restricted by regulators in 2022, the New York-based prediction platform has identified a legal route to resume operations, according to local media reports. With updated regulatory access and an expanding international user base, it is preparing to compete with other prediction platforms and betting services.
Return to the US market
State gambling rules prohibited Polymarket from operating nationwide, forcing it to shut down its activities in the U.S. in 2022. After the setback, Polymarket focused its efforts overseas, where it carried on with business as usual and drew users from outside the United States.
Federal access and regulatory shift
Polymarket acquired QCEX, a federally regulated derivatives exchange, for $112 million. The legal foundation for resuming business in the U.S. was thus established. Polymarket was able to circumvent state-level gambling laws by partnering with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Instead of being regarded as wagers, its contracts are now considered financial instruments.
CFTC regulation applies uniformly across all 50 states, unlike sports betting laws, which vary from state to state. This enables Polymarket to operate nationally without needing to navigate separate licensing processes.
Marketing ahead of the NFL season
Through Meta, Polymarket has started a national advertising campaign with messaging targeted at each of the 50 states. In keeping with its use of federal regulation to operate across state lines, the advertisements also appear in areas where sports betting is illegal. Some ads position Polymarket as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks by contrasting its odds with those of well-known betting sites such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have framed their platforms in a commercial way, offering prediction contracts that are linked to actual occurrences. With this strategy, Kalshi attracted attention during the 2024 elections. The distinction between trading and gambling remains hazy in the public’s mind due to the overlap with sports betting odds, even with legal benefits.
Rising competition in prediction markets
Kalshi has introduced markets for NFL and college football, increasing its advertising efforts ahead of the season. FanDuel, working with CME Group, has signalled interest in financial prediction markets but is proceeding cautiously due to regulatory concerns. Tensions between company leaders have surfaced, with Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan accusing Kalshi of imitation, while Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour has responded by asserting legal advantage.
Polymarket’s global reach
Polymarket outperformed popular betting sites such as FanDuel and DraftKings in May 2025, with 15.9 million page visits despite not operating in the United States. Over $3 billion worth of contracts were exchanged during the 2024 presidential election, which saw a spike in activity. With a recent $200 million funding round, its valuation surpassed $1 billion, solidifying its position in the fintech industry.
Sports betting in the US
Sports betting is legal in 38 states as of 2025; however, each has its own set of regulations and licensing requirements. Missouri will join the increasing list of states with established legal frameworks when it starts operations in December. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which need state clearance, Polymarket is able to operate nationwide thanks to its federal licence.
