US President Donald Trump’s media and technology business is entering the prediction market sector, unveiling plans to offer event contracts through Truth Social, its social networking platform, via a new product called Truth Predict.
The initiative comes through a partnership between Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. (TMTG) and Crypto.com, which will power the event contracts infrastructure. Truth Predict will allow users to trade predictions on politics, economics, and even sports, making Truth Social the first publicly traded social media platform to offer prediction markets.
“We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly traded social media platform to offer users access to prediction markets,” said Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes. “Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets while harnessing our platform to provide unique ways to discuss and compare their predictions.”
Beta launch expected soon
TMTG plans to roll out Truth Predict in beta over the coming weeks, with a nationwide launch across all 50 states expected shortly after. The prediction market will initially focus on political and economic events but will later expand to sports and global event contracts, a move that could attract regulatory attention from US agencies overseeing gambling and derivatives.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates event contracts, will likely play a key oversight role, especially given that Trump recently nominated Michael Selig, Chief Counsel for the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, to serve as the new CFTC Chair.
Crypto.com partnership deepens
This new agreement expands upon one that was formed in August between Trump Media and Crypto.com, which launched a digital rewards program for Truth Social users. With the new agreement, users can convert loyalty rewards into Cronos (CRO), Crypto.com’s native digital currency, and use it to trade event contracts directly on the platform.
Under the agreement, Trump Media will purchase $105 million in Cronos, while Crypto.com will invest $50 million in Trump Media stock, further aligning the two companies’ long-term ambitions.
“Prediction markets are poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry,” said Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek. “We’re thrilled to combine with Truth Social to support the world’s first prediction markets available from a social media platform.”
Regulatory and market implications
The launch comes amid heightened regulatory scrutiny of sports event contracts. Crypto.com was recently ordered by the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) to cease offering sports prediction products in the state after the regulator ruled they fell under Nevada’s wagering laws. Following a denied injunction by US District Court Judge Andrew Gordon, Crypto.com announced it would withdraw its sports event contracts from Nevada.
The move positions Truth Predict as a competitor to Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have been navigating complex US regulatory frameworks for event-based trading. Analysts reportedly suggest that Truth Predict’s integration into Truth Social could influence how traditional operators like DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter approach prediction markets.
Trump’s expanding influence over the CFTC
Trump’s growing involvement in the prediction markets space extends beyond his media company. His son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the biggest names in the sector, though he reportedly has no involvement with Crypto.com.
Trump has considerable influence over the regulation of these markets due to his authority over the CFTC’s leadership. His initial pick for CFTC Chair, Brian Quintenz, a former Crypto.com advisor and Kalshi board member, was recently dropped after public backlash, leading to the Congress weighing alternative candidates and ultimate nomination of Mike Selig as his replacement.
Currently, the CFTC is operating with just one commissioner, Caroline Pham, who is acting as chair. By law, the agency is required to have five commissioners. Pham has previously signalled her intent to step down once a permanent chair is confirmed.
The partnership between Trump Media and Crypto.com marks the first direct integration of prediction markets into a social media platform.“For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets,” Nunes added. “With Truth Predict, we’re democratising information and empowering everyday Americans to turn free speech into actionable foresight.”
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