Trump alien pledge sparks prediction market bets surge
Prediction markets on the possible existence of aliens recorded a sharp rise in trading activity after US President Donald Trump announced that he would direct the government to begin releasing relevant files. The statement, posted early Friday on Truth Social, triggered immediate reactions from traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Trading volumes spike on Kalshi
Kalshi’s market asking whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens before 1 January 2027 saw trading volumes surge within hours of the announcement.
Two weeks ago, total trading volume on the contract stood at around $1.3 million. By Friday, 20 February, it had climbed to more than $5 million. Over the last 24 hours alone, traders placed more than $1 million in bets.
The probability implied by the market moved sharply. It rose from 17 percent to as high as 28 percent before settling back to around 21 percent by Friday afternoon.
Throughout January, the market recorded relatively low trading activity. Volumes began to rise gradually in recent weeks before accelerating sharply following Trump’s post.
Kalshi’s rules state that the market will resolve to “Yes” only if a US government official definitively confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology before 1 January 2027. The confirmation must come from the President, a member of the Cabinet, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a US federal agency.
Similar reaction on Polymarket
Polymarket recorded a comparable increase in trading activity. Its market asks whether the US government will reveal that aliens exist by 31 December 2026.
The implied probability currently stands at 17 percent. Last week, the same market showed odds of 9 percent.
Polymarket applies similar settlement criteria. The contract will resolve to “Yes” only if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the end of 2026.
The parallel rise across both platforms reflects a coordinated response from traders following the President’s public statement.
Trump announces file release process
Trump said he would direct the government to “begin the process of identifying and releasing” files related to aliens. He did not provide a timeline for when any documents would be made public.
The announcement followed remarks made by former President Barack Obama during a podcast conversation with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen.
In the discussion, Obama said of aliens, “They’re real, but I haven’t seen them.” He added that there was no underground facility hiding such information from the President of the US.
A document release alone would not automatically trigger a “Yes” outcome unless an authorised official clearly confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology.
For now, traders continue to adjust positions as the story develops, with market probabilities fluctuating in response to new information.
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