Anjouan targets prediction markets with new licensing push
Anjouan, the small offshore licensing jurisdiction, is now making an explicit play for prediction markets, and doing so by arguing that the sector has outgrown its “experimental” label.
Speaking to SiGMA News, Gilad Oren, iGaming licensing specialist and chief executive of GBO International Financial Services LTD, said Anjouan was competing in a crowded international licensing market: “Anjouan operates within the international licensing segment, competing with jurisdictions such as Curaçao and Kahnawà:ke, while newer jurisdictions are also entering the space like Nevis.”
His claim was that Anjouan’s pitch is not simply speed or permissiveness, but how it categorises products. “What defines its positioning is a functional regulatory approach,” Oren said. “It does not treat prediction markets as a novelty category.”
Instead, he argued, platforms are judged on “structure, staking of value, contingent outcome, defined settlement and operator custody or facilitation of funds.” That, he said, is why operators are attracted by a clear regulatory perimeter, defined compliance standards, and operational flexibility without Tier-1 regulatory burden.
Clarity over novelty
The regulator’s own messaging has followed the same line. In a recent press release, Anjouan Gaming framed the sector as moving into the mainstream: “Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from niche forecasting tools into a mainstream sector of the global iGaming industry.”
The core argument is that success now depends on formal oversight. “However, as the market matures, the transition from ‘experimental’ to ‘regulated’ has become the primary differentiator for successful operators,” it said, adding: “As the largest iGaming ecosystem in the world, Anjouan has established itself as the premier jurisdiction for licensing innovative platforms.”
Oren’s interview offered a more detailed description of how that posture might work in practice, describing what he called “classification clarity”. “The edge is not lighter regulation, it is classification clarity,” he said.
He laid out the regulator’s apparent approach to product scope: “Prediction markets are assessed based on: risk-bearing, determinability of outcome, consumer exposure”. He added that “Political events, financial indices, weather markets and esports outcomes are treated under a wagering-equivalent framework where applicable.”
That positioning matters because prediction markets have spent the past year moving out of crypto corners and into public view. Trading volumes and public attention rose around major political events, sports and big economic decisions, with leading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi drawing wider audiences. Their implied probabilities began to circulate beyond specialist circles, appearing more often in media coverage and analysis alongside traditional indicators such as polling and commentary.
Anjouan is now attempting to present itself as a place where the category can be treated as conventional wagering, rather than an awkward hybrid that falls between gambling and finance.
Selling legitimacy and accepting the risks
Anjouan Gaming’s press release tried to give the pitch a consumer-protection edge. “The Anjouan Gaming License is not merely a permit to operate,” it said. “It is a comprehensive regulatory seal that confirms a platform’s commitment to international standards.” The regulator added: “Our framework is specifically designed to accommodate the unique mechanics of prediction markets, ensuring that ‘event wagering’ is handled with the same level of scrutiny as traditional sports betting.”
A key selling point is dispute handling. “Anjouan leads the industry by requiring mandatory Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) for all licensees,” the regulator said. “This ensures that legitimate disputes are handled by impartial third parties, providing a safety net for users and a clear protocol for operators.”
But even supporters acknowledge the trade-offs. Oren warned of “Reputational sensitivity (especially political markets)”, alongside “Classification overlap with financial regulation”, “Banking friction”, and “Market integrity and manipulation risks”. He argued the long-term question is what prediction products become: “The key uncertainty is not growth, it is long-term classification.”
Anjouan has already been tightening rules in adjacent parts of its ecosystem, signalling a preference for formal structures: since 1 July 2025, third-party suppliers working with Anjouan-licensed operators, from platform and software providers to RNG and game studios, have been required to hold either a full Anjouan B2B licence or a B2B Recognition Certificate.
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