Inside the start-up building Germany’s prediction market
A young German entrepreneur is testing whether prediction markets can gain a foothold in Europe by beginning with points, sponsored prizes and social competition rather than cash wagers.
Vincent Betz (pictured above), a computer scientist who studied at the University of California, Berkeley, and recently sold his previous start-up, launched an early version of Bettie after returning to Germany and moving to Berlin. The platform, formerly known as Prediqu, allows users to forecast events in politics, sport and everyday life, with probabilities changing as participants make their predictions.
While Germany is Bettie’s initial market, Betz told SiGMA News that his ambitions extend further, with the company watching for opportunities to expand its prediction-market model across Europe. The forecasts, he said, could eventually generate valuable data for media companies, researchers and businesses.
For now, however, Bettie does not accept money. Users collect points, compete in rankings and join private or sponsored leagues. Betz said the first version had attracted hundreds of users within days of launching.
“We are not taking real-money bets at this stage, so it remains a social game,” he said. “Brands can sponsor competitions within the app, where users make predictions and compete for prizes.”
The German Polymarket?
The questions on Bettie range from the serious to the deliberately mundane. Recent examples asked whether Bayern Munich would become German champions in the 2026-27 season, whether Germany’s temperature record would be broken this year and whether the most expensive beer at Oktoberfest would cost more than €16.50.
One market asked how many minutes late an intercity train from Cologne would be when it arrived in Berlin. Another asked whether the rebirth of Jesus Christ would take place before 2027.
Betz believes that the combination of sport, politics and familiar everyday subjects is essential to attracting people who may find conventional financial-style prediction platforms intimidating.
Sport remains the platform’s main entry point, even though Bettie is intended to cover a much wider range of subjects. Betz said familiar sporting questions helped introduce users to the format before leading them towards markets on politics, current affairs and everyday life.
“Sport draws many users to the platform,” he explained. “Once there, they discover other events they could not previously make predictions on.”
“The biggest challenge is making the platform easy to understand at a glance,” he said. “At the moment, it looks rather like a stock-trading site, which is not necessarily what people want from a game.”
Bettie currently publishes about 10 questions a day. Some are submitted by users, while others are generated by a system that monitors news and social-media trends. Betz said proposed questions are tested with a smaller group before being distributed more widely.
To settle yes-or-no predictions, the company identifies two sources in advance. Software checks those sources after the event, followed, at least during the platform’s early stages, by a human review. Questions based on numerical outcomes use an external data provider or application programming interface.
A creative business model
The free-to-play model also reflects the legal uncertainty surrounding prediction markets in Germany. There is no distinct German licensing system for them, while real-money platforms may be treated as gambling or, depending on their structure, as financial products.
Betz said money-based versions were not currently possible under the approach taken by Germany’s gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, or GGL. He argued that prediction markets did not fit neatly within either the gambling or financial regulatory systems as they are presently designed.
That uncertainty, however, is also part of what attracted him to the German market. With established operators reluctant to enter the sector, Betz believes there is space for a company willing to test the boundaries through a free-to-play product.
“I saw an opportunity in Germany because the regulatory uncertainty has deterred many potential competitors,” he said.
His long-term ambition is more expansive. Betz hopes German and European authorities may eventually establish a framework for event-based contracts, allowing regulated platforms to serve local consumers.
“In the long term, it would make sense to build the necessary infrastructure,” he said. “It will take more than one company, we will need a wider group of businesses working together. But I do not see a future in which prediction markets do not become established here.”
He also argued that restrictions alone were unlikely to eliminate demand, and that a regulated European market could offer consumers stronger safeguards than offshore alternatives. “I do not think the best solution is to keep having European consumers find ways to send all their money overseas,” he said.
For now, however, regulators are moving in the opposite direction. France has ordered internet providers to block Polymarket after earlier geoblocking measures proved ineffective, while Belgium blacklisted the platform in 2025. Hungary and Portugal have also taken action, the Netherlands has pursued enforcement measures and financial penalties, and Spain has imposed a precautionary block. Italy, Poland, Switzerland and several other European jurisdictions have likewise restricted prediction-market activity.
Malta and Gibraltar have signalled a different approach. Malta is considering a dedicated legal framework, while Gibraltar has introduced rules intended to bring the sector under formal supervision.
To navigate the regulatory uncertainty in Germany, Betz is focusing on a free-to-play model supported by brand partnerships. He is seeking sponsors for competitions within the app and exploring integrations that would allow publishers to place forecasting questions beneath news articles.
Those partnerships could provide an early source of revenue, but Betz sees greater long-term value in the data generated by users’ predictions. Over time, the platform, which is already collaborating with Axel Springer SE, one of Europe’s largest media groups, could offer publishers, researchers and businesses a constantly updated picture of what people think is likely to happen.
Betz said Bettie had already drawn attention despite receiving little publicity. “People see it as a fun game, and there is clearly demand for it,” he told SiGMA News. The platform remains at an early stage, but he believes the initial response points to wider demand for a European prediction-market product.
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