As innovation continues to reshape the global gaming landscape, prediction markets are emerging as one of the industry’s most closely watched developments. During the panel “Prediction Markets in Asia: Event Contracts vs iGaming – Charting Regulatory Frontiers and Product Horizons” at SiGMA Asia 2026, industry leaders explored how these products fit within existing legal frameworks and whether they represent a challenge or an opportunity for traditional gaming operators.
Held on 3 June at the SMX Convention Center Manila, the discussion brought together Bhavesh Parthi, CEO and CMO of M21 Media BV; Miranda Guliashvili, Head of Regional Growth at SOFTSWISS; Mimi St. Johns, Co-Founder and CTO of RYVAL; and Tonet Quiogue, Founder and CEO of Arden Consult.
Understanding the prediction market opportunity
Prediction market participants can buy and sell contracts based on whether an outcome will occur. These markets are viewed as investment tools rather than just gambling, unlike traditional sports bets. Therefore, predicting international elections, various economic indicators, and even entertainment and sports events is possible.
The panel shared insights into what is driving this rapidly growing interest in Asia’s prediction markets. The rapid evolution of information technology, an increase in the number of individuals familiar with financial trading platforms, and demand for different types of engagement have set the stage for new entrants into the market.
As younger demographics continue to pursue ways to combine investing, gaming, and social involvement, they will discover that prediction markets offer an experience far more distinctive than simply wagering through traditional gambling or participating in typical financial trades.
Regulation remains the defining challenge
Although prediction markets have become increasingly popular, they continue to face significant regulatory uncertainty across Asia.
The primary focus of the panel discussion was on classification issues, such as how to classify event contracts as either a financial instrument, a gaming product, or an entirely new category.
Classification is by no means an academic issue. The classification of an event contract will trigger different licensing requirements, compliance obligations, consumer protection obligations and taxation regimes. In many jurisdictions, the existing legislation did not contemplate prediction markets, leaving operators with grey areas to navigate.
The panellists commented that there is significant variability in the regulatory approach to event contracts between the Asian markets. Some jurisdictions may view event contracts as an innovative financial product, while others may interpret them as a form of betting activity.
This fractured landscape creates both opportunities and risks for businesses looking to expand into the region. As such, businesses looking to expand into the region must develop flexible compliance strategies that accommodate the many different legal regimes while maintaining a high level of operational efficiency.
Responsible innovation is essential
The discussion also focused heavily on responsible product development.
While prediction markets often differentiate themselves from gambling, speakers acknowledged that many of the same consumer protection principles remain relevant. Issues such as affordability, transparency, anti-money laundering controls, identity verification, and player safeguards continue to play an important role.
In response to regulators’ re-evaluation of their approach to new product introduction, the concept of responsible innovation has emerged as a critical success factor for the future viability of all companies.
Panelists emphasised the necessity for operators to engage with regulators early and intentionally, rather than reacting post-factum to enforcement actions or legislative changes. Trust between the operator and the regulator will facilitate collaboration to develop regulatory frameworks that protect consumers while promoting innovation.
The consensus was clear: compliance cannot be viewed as a barrier to growth. Instead, it should be integrated into product design from the earliest stages of development.
Competition or collaboration?
A major question raised during the session was whether prediction markets will ultimately compete with traditional sportsbooks and online casinos.
Rather than viewing the relationship as a zero-sum contest, several speakers suggested that prediction markets may complement existing gaming ecosystems. The products appeal to overlapping but not identical audiences, creating opportunities for diversification and cross-sell strategies.
Operators already possess many of the capabilities required to support prediction market offerings, including customer acquisition expertise, payment infrastructure, risk management systems, and compliance frameworks.
At the same time, prediction markets could introduce new customer segments who may not traditionally engage with sportsbooks or casino products.
The panel suggested that future success may depend less on direct competition and more on strategic integration. Operators that can combine entertainment, engagement, and regulatory compliance may be best positioned to capitalise on evolving consumer preferences.
A sector worth watching
With the continued maturation of the digital economy across Asia, prediction markets will attract increasing scrutiny from regulators, investors, and gaming operators over time.
Although there are still many serious legal and operational hurdles to overcome, the panel presentations made it clear that there is a great deal of interest in event contracts beyond simply as a form of niche experimentation. The discussion has shifted towards a greater focus on practical implementation, responsible growth, and long-term market sustainability.
For gaming businesses operating in Asia, understanding the evolving role of prediction markets may soon become a strategic necessity. Whether they emerge as a standalone vertical, a complementary product, or a catalyst for broader industry innovation, one thing is clear: the regulatory and commercial debate surrounding event contracts is only just beginning.
For more insights from the world’s leading gaming, technology, and regulatory experts, visit the SiGMA website: SiGMA World.
