Maybank Investment Bank has warned that Genting Malaysia could post a core net loss for the second quarter of 2026, as a combination of seasonal weakness, geopolitical tensions and softer gaming demand weighs on the casino operator’s performance.
In a research note ahead of the company’s results due on 20 August, the brokerage has slashed its full-year 2026 earnings forecast by 28 per cent, saying the second quarter is shaping up to be weaker than usual.
While April to June has naturally been a softer period following the Chinese New Year peak, Maybank believes this year’s slowdown is likely to be more severe due to external factors like the World Cup and Middle East tensions.
World Cup, conflict pressure Q2
One of the biggest challenges has been the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Higher diesel prices are believed to have reduced visits from both VIP and mass-market customers to Resorts World Genting, while the conflict may also have discouraged Middle Eastern visitors and transit travellers from visiting Genting UK’s London VIP clubs.
The FIFA World Cup has also affected casino spending, with many customers likely to spend on the global sporting event rather than on gaming. According to Maybank, operations at both Resorts World Genting and Genting UK will be affected by this phenomenon.
Despite its cautious view on the current quarter, the brokerage believes these pressures are temporary. It trimmed its 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts by only four per cent and remains optimistic about the group’s longer-term outlook, largely because of improving performance in the United States.
Hopes from NYC project
Resorts World New York City (RWNYC), which launched live table games on 28 April, has emerged as one of the company’s brighter spots. Weekly gross gaming revenue from table games has climbed to around US$11.1 million, more than double the $4.9 million recorded during its opening week.
Average daily revenue per table has also exceeded expectations, reaching about $6,539, comfortably above Maybank’s earlier forecast of $5,500. Although slot machine revenue has fallen by around 12 per cent since table games were introduced, the lower tax rate applied to table games is expected to improve the property’s overall profitability.
Maybank now expects Genting Malaysia to generate MYR13.1 billion ($3.20 billion) in revenue and MYR3.18 billion ($778 million) in EBITDA during 2026. Those figures are projected to increase to MYR15.7 billion ($3.84 billion) in revenue and MYR3.98 billion ($974 million) in EBITDA in 2027, before rising to MYR17.4 billion ($4.26 billion) and MYR4.34 billion ($1.06 billion), respectively, in 2028.
Q1 delivered lower EBITDA
The cautious outlook also follows a difficult start to the year for Genting Malaysia. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue of MYR2.87 billion ($724 million), up 10 per cent year-on-year, helped by stronger contributions from its US operations.
However, higher operating costs offset much of that growth. Adjusted EBITDA fell 13 per cent to MYR644.7 million ($153 million), while the group slipped to a net loss of MYR25.2 million ($6 million), compared with a net profit of MYR52 million ($12.3 million) a year earlier. Profit before tax also dropped 77 per cent to MYR43.1 million ($10.2 million).
The bank has now turned its attention to 20 August, when Genting Malaysia releases its second-quarter results, to see whether the company’s performance matches its expectations.
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