Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction exchange, is preparing to roll out new parlay-style event contracts that allow users to trade on multiple outcomes at once, closely resembling offerings from major sports betting operators.
In recent filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the prediction market platform notified regulators that it is self-certifying contracts designed to bundle several event outcomes. Kalshi labelled the proposed contracts as: “Will <outcomes> occur in <events>?”
Kalshi intends to launch the contracts as early as 4 September, coinciding with the start of the NFL season. Under CFTC rules, once a registered designated contract market (DCM) self-certifies new products, the agency has 24 hours to review before they can go live.
The new market covers a wide range of events including individual games, season-long outcomes, drafts, and postseason play. Contract outcomes could feature player and team statistics, awards, milestones, playoff progress and even championship victories. Prices will range between $0.01 and $0.99, with Kalshi applying its standard transaction fees.
Kalshi’s filing also references a dedicated football rulebook titled FOOTBALLSTATS, which governs the new parlay-style contracts. Eligibility restrictions will apply. Contracts are only open to users aged 18 and above, while current and former NFL or NCAA players, coaches, staff, and owners are prohibited from trading. The restrictions also extend to household members and immediate family of barred individuals.
Competing with sportsbooks and prediction markets
Kalshi has emphasised that its expansion is part of a broader strategy to meet rising demand for regulated alternatives to the $84 billion illegal sports betting market. In a statement provided to SBC Americas, the company said the new offerings will “expand access for Americans to a federally transparent, regulated, and supervised marketplace for sports trading.”
The company is positioning its contracts to mirror traditional sportsbook wagers, effectively blending prediction market trading with betting-style mechanics. Last month, Kalshi submitted a proposal to offer betting markets on football matches, including point spreads, over/unders, and touchdown scorers. Kalshi has proposed three distinct types of football-related prediction markets. The first involves point spread contracts, which determine whether a team will win by a specified margin, such as seven points. Although this model is structured within a licensed exchange, it operates similarly to traditional sportsbooks. The second type centres on over/under contracts. The third category focuses on player-specific outcomes, such as whether a particular player will score a touchdown in the second half.
Strong growth despite legal battles
Since its 2019 launch, Kalshi has facilitated more than $6 billion in trading volume and attracted around three million users. The firm continues to diversify its product range despite facing several unresolved lawsuits over the legality of its contracts. Recently, The Ho-Chunk Nation of Wisconsin sued Kalshi and Robinhood, accusing the companies of violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and engaging in racketeering and corruption. The federal lawsuit, filed in the Western District of Wisconsin, marks the latest legal challenge to the offering of sports-related event contracts by non-tribal entities on or near tribal lands.
The lawsuit follows similar claims made by a coalition of California tribal gaming interests, expanding the growing legal scrutiny of how sports contracts are marketed and operated across multiple states. In July, three federally recognised California tribes—the Blue Lake Rancheria, the Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and the Picayune Rancheria of the Chukchansi Indians—filed a federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood. They allege that the companies are offering illegal sports betting disguised as “event contracts”, thereby violating tribal sovereignty and federal law.
Industry experts believe the legal wrangling could drag on for years. On a recent episode of iGaming Daily, Marc Dunbar, partner at Jones Walker and president of the International Masters of Gaming Law (IMGL), projected that the dispute may ultimately reach the US Supreme Court, with a possible two-year timeline before final resolution.
In July, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI announced a new partnership with regulated prediction market Kalshi. The collaboration will see xAI’s chatbot Grok assist users trading on Kalshi’s real-money platform by offering real-time analysis of economic data, political events and market news. Grok, developed by Musk’s xAI, will now play a role in helping users make informed decisions on Kalshi. These include outcomes like US Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation data, or election results.
