Macau casino stocks rally as region posts strong H1 results
Macau’s casino stocks witnessed a robust resurgence, with gaming operators’ shares outperforming the broader market, driven by increased visitor numbers, enhanced transport infrastructure, and a flourishing entertainment programme.
A Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau’s listed casino companies has jumped 59 percent since April—far outpacing the 31 percent gain in the Hang Seng Composite Index over the same period. The rally comes on the back of three straight months of gross gaming revenue (GGR) surpassing analyst expectations, supported by high-profile concerts from Cantopop legend Jacky Cheung and K-pop icon G-Dragon, as well as eased visa policies and improved railway links.
Melco and MGM register massive gains
US-listed Melco Resorts & Entertainment saw a 95 percent rise in share price from its spring low, while MGM China Holdings, listed in Hong Kong, has gained 72 percent. Despite these rallies, sector valuations remain relatively low.
Analysts at Jefferies Financial Group expect July to continue the sector’s strong performance, citing on-ground observations that reflect sustained investor momentum. Morningstar’s research team is optimistic about long-term growth, emphasizing the positive effects of streamlined visa policies, enhanced travel infrastructure, and ongoing efforts by merchants to diversify beyond gaming.
The surge in casino stocks aligns with Macau’s strong performance in the first half of 2025. The city’s casino industry generated MOP 118.77 billion (€13.5 billion) in gross gaming revenue—a 4.4 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
Strong June behind H1 Boom
June proved exceptionally robust, recording MOP 21.06 billion (€2.38 billion), the second-highest monthly figure since 2019. May 2025 remains the strongest month to date, with MOP 21.19 billion (€2.41 billion) in gaming revenue.
By mid-July, cumulative GGR stood at MOP 132.35 billion (€15 billion), accounting for 61 percent of the government’s revised annual target and marking a 36.7 percent increase over the same time frame in 2024.
However, the growth in gaming-related tax revenue has been more muted. With an effective tax rate of around 40 percent on GGR, the sector contributed MOP 45.26 billion (€5.14 billion) in the first six months of the year—just 1 percent more than the previous year. Nevertheless, the government reported a budget surplus of MOP 11.4 billion (€1.29 billion), 166 percent above initial estimates, indicating prudent fiscal management amid slower revenue growth.
The government has since adjusted its full-year GGR forecast from MOP 240 billion to MOP 228 billion (€27.3 billion to €25.9 billion). The gaming tax revenue estimate was also increased from MOP 79.8 billion to MOP 88.56 billion (€9.1 billion to €10 billion) following a strong performance in June.
Eyes on H2 2025 results
Entertainment continues to play a crucial role in Macau’s ongoing recovery. Events like concerts, cultural festivals, and seasonal promotions has revitalised integrated resorts and attracted substantial visitor numbers. This trend supports the government’s broader strategy to diversify the economy beyond gaming, as outlined in the 2022 Gaming Law.
As the second half of 2025 progresses, attention will turn to forthcoming financial results and monthly gross gaming revenue figures to assess whether Macau’s casino rally can be sustained.
