Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is reportedly forecast to expand by more than 8 percent in 2025, with analysts citing an improving Chinese economy and strong visitation trends as key drivers of growth.
According to Seaport Research Partners, as reported by Asia Gaming Brief, Macau’s casino GGR is projected to rise 8.9 percent year-on-year, supported by a stronger second-half performance. Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that growth is expected to accelerate to 13.5 percent in the second half of the year, compared with 4.4 percent in the first six months. He attributed this to increased consumer spending power and rising demand from China’s upper middle class.
“The improvement in China’s economy, especially the upper middle class consumer, is central to driving long-term upward growth in Macau,” Umansky said, adding that consumer confidence and government support measures will continue to bolster demand.
Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley echo optimism
Deutsche Bank also issued a positive outlook, with analyst Steven Pizzella projecting Macau’s GGR to total $30.7 billion in 2025, an 8.3 percent increase from the prior year. He pointed to August’s performance—when GGR rose 12.2 percent year-on-year to MOP22.16 billion ($2.77 billion)—as a constructive backdrop for continued expansion. Pizzella further forecast third-quarter 2025 GGR to reach $8 billion, up 14.9 percent year-on-year.
Morgan Stanley analysts offered a similarly bullish view, projecting Macau’s September GGR to increase by 16 percent year-on-year, implying strong third-quarter growth. Analyst Praveen K. Choudhary described this as “constructive for the industry and a positive sign for earnings momentum in the second half of the year.” The brokerage added that three consecutive months of double-digit growth should begin to deliver operational leverage for operators, supporting margin expansion and upward revisions to earnings forecasts.
Premium mass leads, but overnight visitation key
Seaport has noted that the rebound of overnight base mass visitation remains vital for sustaining momentum. This comes despite premium mass gaming continuing to dominate post-Covid recovery. Analysts suggested that a stronger Chinese consumer market and the easing of cross-border travel restrictions could accelerate this segment in late 2025 and beyond.
With mainland China visitation continuing to recover, the city’s mass-market gaming segment has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Umansky added, “Premium spend has been a strong driver, but the next leg of growth will come from a recovery in overnight base mass. As the Chinese upper middle class continues to see wealth and income gains, Macau will be a key beneficiary.”
Valuation and risks
Despite gaming stocks rebounding since early 2025, analysts note that current valuations remain well below the 2018–2019 average. However, Seaport has cautioned that risks remain tied to China’s broader economic performance, including real estate market pressures, consumer sentiment, and geopolitical tensions such as trade disputes.
Government support measures in place that are aimed at stimulating domestic consumption are expected to provide a buffer, helping Macau maintain its growth trajectory. Looking further ahead, Seaport forecasts medium-term expansion of 6.5 percent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027, while Deutsche Bank predicts GGR will grow 3.6 percent in 2026, reaching $31.8 billion.
H2 2025 predictions
For the second half of 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts predict resilient demand and higher spending patterns across the city’s gaming floors. The bank now forecasts GGR in H2 2025 to rise by 15 percent year-on-year (YoY), outpacing broader expectations. As per a report, Morgan Stanley noted casino floors “full even on a Monday morning,” with minimum table bets starting at HK$1,000 ($128) at Galaxy Macau and between HK$1,000–HK$2,000 ($128–$256) at Melco properties. Hotel bookings were reported as difficult to secure, reflecting strong demand for summer holidays.
The upbeat outlook builds on an earlier report from JP Morgan, which upgraded its full-year forecast after three consecutive months of outperformance. The bank projected GGR growth of 13 percent in the second half, up from four percent in the first half, with expansion expected to continue until at least the first quarter of 2026.
Macau’s industry-wide GGR for January 2025 to July 2025 reached MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion), up 6.5 percent year-on-year. Analysts attribute the recovery largely to the renewed spending power of mainland Chinese business owners, alongside strong equity market performance in Hong Kong and the United States, which has boosted consumer confidence.
