Macau GGR set for ‘double-digit growth’ as analysts stay bullish
Macau’s casino industry is likely to show a stronger-than-expected momentum, with Morgan Stanley analysts predicting resilient demand and higher spending patterns across the city’s gaming floors. The bank now forecasts gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the second half of 2025 to rise by 15 percent year-on-year (YoY), outpacing broader expectations.
As per a report by GGRAsia, during a recent field trip, Morgan Stanley noted casino floors “full even on a Monday morning,” with minimum table bets starting at HK$1,000 ($128) at Galaxy Macau and between HK$1,000–HK$2,000 ($128–$256) at Melco properties. Hotel bookings were reported as difficult to secure, reflecting strong demand for summer holidays.
Analysts said that non-gaming events, such as concerts and sports fixtures, were already selling out for the months ahead, further supporting Macau’s visitor inflows. August GGR is estimated to have grown by 12 percent, giving what the bank called a “solid baseline” for the remainder of the year.
Similar outlook in JP Morgan report
The upbeat outlook builds on an earlier report from JP Morgan, which upgraded its full-year forecast after three consecutive months of outperformance. The bank projected GGR growth of 13 percent in the second half, up from four percent in the first half, with expansion expected to continue until at least the first quarter of 2026.
Macau’s industry-wide GGR for January 2025 to July 2025 reached MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion), up 6.5 percent year-on-year. Analysts attribute the recovery largely to the renewed spending power of mainland Chinese business owners, alongside strong equity market performance in Hong Kong and the United States, which has boosted consumer confidence.
Operators are also returning dividends, adding to investor appeal. Wynn Macau declared the highest interim payout at HK$0.185 per share, while MGM China distributed HK$0.313, reflecting a payout ratio of more than 50 percent. Galaxy Entertainment offered HK$0.7, also above 50 percent. Sands China, despite maintaining a 60 percent payout, declared a smaller dividend of HK$0.25 as it repaid a one billion-dollar loan to its US parent company.
Despite the positive revenue trajectory, analysts note that operating expenses for the industry rose 14 percent in the second quarter, limiting margin gains. They expect operating leverage to improve, however, as revenues climb in the second half of the year.
Competition to stay intense b/w operators
Competition remains intense, with market shares largely stable in the short term as no major new casino capacity is being added. Future growth is expected from Galaxy Macau’s Phase 4 expansion, while Wynn and Galaxy are seen as potential market share winners in the third quarter. The end of Macau’s satellite casino licencing model, which predominantly supported SJM Holdings, is viewed as a negative for the company.
Although SJM gains gaming tables for its core properties, analysts expect revenue leakage to benefit rivals, including Sands and MGM. Overall, the combination of rising demand, a packed non-gaming calendar, and dividend payouts is fuelling optimism that Macau’s growth cycle will extend well into 2026.
