Matchbook is set to launch a new prediction market platform in the UK this January, marking a major strategic step as the betting exchange gears up to compete with US operators Kalshi and Polymarket.
Interim CEO Ronan McDonagh told Bloomberg the UK rollout will act as a “road test” for its technology while Matchbook awaits regulatory approval in the US, which the company expects as early as March. Matchbook is registered in Guernsey and majority-owned by renowned professional gambler Zeljko Ranogajec, following a reduced stake from Brentford FC owner Matthew Benham.
Testing US-style prediction markets
The UK, long accustomed to legal and regulated betting, offers Matchbook a chance to gauge how much the emerging American fascination with prediction markets translates overseas. As reported by Bloomberg, while Matchbook already operates as a betting exchange, the new product will display contracts as percentage probabilities (Yes/No outcomes) rather than the UK’s traditional fractional odds, mirroring the presentation used by US prediction markets.
Betting exchanges differ from sportsbooks by matching buyers and sellers rather than taking the opposite side of bets. McDonagh says the updated interface should make prediction markets more intuitive for British users: “It should be more understandable… we’re hopeful it captures a new audience or intrigues people to have a look.”
The product will launch under Matchbook’s existing UK Gambling Commission exchange licence, with an initial focus on sports. The company will also launch a white-label prediction market for easyBet, part of easyJet founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s group.
Riding the global boom in prediction markets
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity, especially around the 2024 US election cycle. Their regulatory classification as federally regulated financial exchanges allows them to offer event contracts nationally in the US, bypassing fragmented state-level betting laws. Topics traded include politics, sports, entertainment, and macro events. In contrast, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket are currently available in the UK, where such products would fall under gambling regulation. Meanwhile, Polymarket has recently officially relaunched in the US.
Eyes on the US market, possibly with a partner
With a lower brand profile in the US than newer competitors, Bloomberg reported that Matchbook is open to partnering with larger companies for distribution.
“We’re not sentimental about going in as Matchbook,” McDonagh said. “We’ve been in the exchange business so long…we’ve got a strong tech platform, strong market makers, liquidity and a great product. We’ll be able to compete on day one in the US.”
Meanwhile, Robinhood has also signalled interest in rolling out prediction markets abroad and has held discussions with the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
Over the past two years, the US prediction-markets space has exploded with entrants. These include PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig, and President Donald Trump’s Truth Predict. On 3 December, Fanatics launched its own platform across 10 states, including Delaware, South Dakota, and Utah.
Sportsbooks are also eyeing this space, DraftKings has moved closer to launching its DraftKings Predictions platform in the United States after receiving crucial federal approvals from two major regulators. Rival operator FanDuel is partnering with CME Group on a new event-contracts joint venture.
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