October sets new highs for prediction market platforms
Kalshi closed October with its strongest performance to date, logging around $4.4 billion in trading volume, according to multiple industry reports. The figure represents not only a record month for the company but also a clear signal of how far regulated prediction markets have come in attracting mainstream attention.
Founded in 2020, Kalshi has gradually positioned itself as the go-to exchange for event-driven trading in the United States. Its success rests on a blend of regulatory approval, product innovation and a loyal user base that values compliance as much as liquidity.
Polymarket rebounds with historic growth
While Kalshi dominated the month in trading volume, October marked a remarkable comeback for Polymarket. Only a few months ago, the platform appeared to be losing steam, with monthly active traders slipping to a low of 227,420 in August.
That decline has now been reversed in dramatic fashion. The number of monthly active traders hit 477,850, up 93.7% from September’s 246,610 and easily surpassing the previous all-time high of 462,600 set back in January.
The turnaround reflects not just stronger market sentiment but also the platform’s growing role in shaping the landscape around decentralised prediction markets.
Monthly trading volume also soared to $3.02 billion, smashing the previous records and marking a decisive break from the period between February and August, when volumes hovered near or below $1 billion.
Polymarket didn’t just see more traders, it saw more action, with 38,270 new markets created in October, nearly three times the number from August. This aggressive pace of market launches speaks to both higher engagement and growing retail interest.
Catalysts: Airdrop rumours and market innovation
Analysts attribute much of Polymarket’s October surge to a combination of platform innovation and well-timed incentives. In particular, the announcement of plans to launch a native POLY token and a related airdrop drove a large influx of new users, as traders hustled to meet eligibility criteria for future rewards.
Historically, the promise of airdrops increases speculative trading volumes, boosts liquidity provision, and leads to a proliferation of smaller, niche markets. The active trader count and the number of new markets mirror this effect. Additionally, rumours regarding the platform’s re-entry into the U.S. market and reports of a potential $15 billion valuation generated extra buzz.
Market sentiment has shifted noticeably: where last year user activity mainly centred around politics and sports betting, recent growth has been driven by broader market strategy, options-style event trading, and asset exposure.
Competitive landscape
October highlighted the contrasting paths of Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi’s regulated framework continues to draw institutional investors, reflecting how prediction markets are edging closer to mainstream finance.
Polymarket, by contrast, is powered by blockchain and community engagement, with its revival fuelled by decentralised innovation and user-driven growth.
The latest record volumes from both platforms point to the prediction market sector becoming a battleground for both compliance-friendly and decentralised approaches. With Kalshi and Polymarket now reporting monthly turnover in the billions, and user growth and new markets climbing to all-time highs, the sector looks poised for continued expansion through 2025, especially if Polymarket’s token launch and U.S. roll-out materialise as planned.
What to watch for next
Both platforms now seem poised for another phase of expansion. Kalshi’s compliance-focused model is expected to keep drawing institutional capital, while Polymarket’s decentralised design and airdrop campaigns are helping it build a loyal, highly engaged user base.
Many see October’s surge as a potential turning point for prediction markets, a moment when regulation, technology and community energy begin to converge, setting the stage for a much sharper race for dominance.
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