Prediction market platform Polymarket is preparing for a return to the United States after nearly three years away. This time, it is trading heavily on sports.
Reports from Bloomberg indicate that the relaunch could arrive within weeks, with the first phase expected to involve a select group of users. The schedule aligns neatly with the busy autumn football and basketball seasons, offering a chance to regain momentum at the height of US betting interest.
The regulatory rollercoaster
Polymarket stepped back from the US in 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intervened over alleged unregistered trading activity. The resulting settlement included a ban on serving American users. During that period, the company also ran into similar barriers overseas, facing regulatory resistance in the UK, Australia, France and parts of Eastern Asia.
Despite this, the platform has continued to grow internationally, securing $112 million to support expansion efforts and keep its US ambitions on ice rather than abandoning them. That persistence now appears to be paying off with the CFTC reportedly giving Polymarket permission to return, and the business gearing up for a relaunch valued between $12 billion and $15 billion.
Building buzz with a waitlist
Ahead of launch, Polymarket has opened a waitlist for interested users. It asks for a phone number and promises early access notifications once the platform goes live. The move shows a more measured rollout strategy, balancing demand with a closer eye on compliance.
A shake in the market
The announcement has not gone unnoticed on Wall Street. Shares in major US operators slipped as investors digested the news. DraftKings fell close to 10 percent across five days, while Flutter Entertainment, parent company of FanDuel, dropped around 5 percent.
Investor anxiety was already building after Donald Trump revealed that his social media company wants to launch a betting arm with Crypto.com. Polymarket’s comeback adds another unknown for operators already wary of crypto-powered competition.
Kalshi steps on the gas
Polymarket’s closest rival, Kalshi, has also been benefiting from regulatory progress. A federal court allowed Kalshi to operate event-based markets tied to the upcoming US election. The company has since expanded into sports trading and reported a strong start, with its first week of NFL activity outperforming earnings from its election markets.
Yet regulatory hurdles still remain. Kalshi is challenging the oversight of New York Gaming Commission, arguing that federal regulators, not state-bodies, should set the rules. The case underlines that even as federal attitudes toward prediction markets may be shifting, state-level regimes continue to pose significant uncertainty.
What comes next?
Polymarket’s return could mark a shift in how the US views prediction markets. The boundary between speculation and gambling is increasingly blurred, especially when sports are involved. Should the platform manage a compliant and stable relaunch, operators may be forced to reassess competitive strategies and product portfolios. At the same time, regulators will continue drawing lines in a space where financial rules and gambling law overlap.
The next few weeks will reveal whether this comeback signals a new era for the sector or if familiar hurdles resurface. What is clear is that industry attention is firmly locked on Polymarket’s second act and what it may mean for future innovation in US betting.
Join the world’s biggest iGaming community with SiGMA’s Top 10 News countdown. Subscribe HERE for weekly updates, insider insights, and exclusive subscriber-only offers.
