Prediction markets face ‘challenge and opportunity’ in Asia
Prediction markets have exploded into mainstream conversation over the past two years, driven largely by the rise of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. From elections and economic data to sports and global events, users are increasingly placing money behind what they believe will happen next.
But while prediction markets have found strong audiences in parts of the United States and among crypto-native traders, their reach across Asia remains very limited. In an exclusive chat during SiGMA Asia in Manila, Steve Jimenez, the Southeast Asia (SEA) Lead for EveryX, said the region presents unique challenges that make large-scale adoption more difficult than many industry observers assume.
Jimenez believes one of the biggest barriers remains localisation, particularly in a region where language preferences vary significantly from market to market.
“For me, for Asia, it’s kind of hard,” he said. “Asia is not really an English-speaking region. If you do a prediction market, it should be in their local language.”
Different approach to contracts
Language, however, is only one part of the equation. According to Jimenez, political restrictions in parts of Asia pose another challenge for operators seeking to replicate the success prediction markets have enjoyed in the United States. Political contracts have become some of the most popular products on major prediction market platforms, but Jimenez noted that attitudes toward politics vary considerably across Asia.
“It’s not like in the US, where people are very open about politics,” Jimenez said. “Maybe in Vietnam or some parts of China, there are restrictions when it comes to politics. So it’s not as open as the US.”
That presents a significant hurdle for platforms that depend on political event contracts to drive liquidity and engagement. The regulatory picture is equally complicated. Prediction markets continue to occupy a grey area between financial trading, gaming and gambling, with regulators often struggling to determine where exactly they fit.
Referring to the experience of international platforms in the Philippines, Jimenez pointed to the difficulties that can emerge when prediction markets intersect with local political events.
“The moment they did that, Polymarket was banned here,” he said. Jimenez also highlighted the challenges regulators face when dealing with decentralised platforms. “Polymarket and Kalshi are different. One is regulated, one is trying to get regulated, but it’s a decentralised market. So it’s kind of hard to regulate them.”
Appetite clearly exists
Despite the regulatory and political challenges, Jimenez believes there is genuine demand for prediction markets across Asia. The region already represents one of the world’s largest markets for crypto trading and online betting, suggesting a natural audience for event-based contracts. Despite these challenges, interest in prediction markets across Asia continues to grow. In recent years, event-based contracts have gained attention across several countries.
“Future of prediction markets in Asia may be defined by two parallel markets: one regulated, the other unregulated,”
– Steve Jimenez, SEA Lead, EveryX
India recently witnessed strong engagement with election-related prediction contracts, while Indonesia drew headlines after contracts linked to predicting the ouster of President Prabowo Subianto led to regulatory scrutiny and platform restrictions.
When asked whether Asian consumers have an appetite for prediction markets, Jimenez answered emphatically, “There is, there is.” Yet public perception remains a major obstacle. While industry participants often describe prediction markets as information or trading products, many users continue to view them as another form of gambling, and so, even popular brands continue to cut ties with them.
“Some of the traders thought that it was actually gambling,” Jimenez said. “We try to educate, but it’s still 50-50. People think it’s gambling.”
That distinction matters because not every operator wants to position prediction markets alongside traditional betting products. “My boss actually doesn’t want the prediction market to go into gambling,” Jimenez explained. “But now, these platforms are themselves working as a form of gambling.”
According to Jimenez, traditional prediction market models function more like exchanges than sportsbooks. “People are thinking, let’s do Polymarket because of luck, not really because of the prediction side of it,”
While some companies continue to market prediction markets as information or trading platforms, he said, convincing users of that distinction remains difficult. As a result, the sector finds itself in a balancing act between education, regulation and product positioning, with adoption likely to depend on whether platforms can successfully differentiate prediction markets from traditional betting products.
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