Gemini secures CFTC approval for prediction market debut
Gemini has secured approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch regulated prediction markets, marking one of the crypto firm’s major regulatory breakthroughs to date.
The approval grants Gemini Titan, the company’s derivatives division, the status of a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This licence is required for listing event-based derivatives in the United States, and ends a lengthy review process that began with Gemini’s initial application in March 2020.
Chief executive Tyler Winklevoss described the approval as the “conclusion of a five-year licencing process”, saying it opens a new phase for the company’s derivatives strategy. The company shares rose 10.8 percent in after-hours trading following the announcement, although the stock remains more than 50 percent below its IPO price.
Set to offer ‘event contracts’
With the licence in hand, Gemini Titan can now offer “event contracts”, yes-or-no markets tied to future outcomes. These may include questions on cryptocurrency prices, technology companies, regulatory decisions, or global events.
Examples provided by the company include: “Will 1 Bitcoin end the year above $200,000?” and “Will Elon Musk’s X platform pay the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?” If you take a closer look, you’ll see that this format is quite similar to products already offered by Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.
The company has not shared a specific launch date yet, but they mention that access will begin “soon.” Initially, US customers will be able to use a web-based platform, with mobile trading to follow later. Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss shared his exciting vision, saying that prediction markets could grow to be ‘as big or bigger than traditional capital markets.’ He believes that regulated event-trading will become an increasingly vital part of financial forecasting.
Interest in prediction markets has grown sharply since a federal court overturned the CFTC’s long-standing prohibition on election contracts last year. The ruling opened the door for more firms to enter the sector, prompting new activity from players such as Fanatics and Robinhood, which recently acquired LedgerX to expand their derivatives capabilities.
Gemini also plans to explore additional products for US users, including crypto futures, options and perpetual swaps, instruments that have become highly popular on Asian exchanges over the past decade. The firm noted the “strong global demand” for perpetual futures, though US regulation in this area remains tight.
No clarity about sports contracts yet
The company did not reference any plans for sports-related prediction markets, an area currently facing legal challenges from state gaming regulators who argue that sports derivatives fall under their jurisdiction rather than the federal CFTC.
Analysts say the approval gives Gemini a foundation for diversifying its revenues beyond spot trading, though the firm still faces pressure to grow market share after its stock fell sharply post-IPO. Its first earnings report as a public company is scheduled for 10 November 2025.
With regulatory clearance now secured, Gemini’s main challenge will be execution: launching products, attracting liquidity, and building trust in a fast-moving and increasingly competitive prediction-market landscape.
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