Gemini launches prediction markets platform across the US
Gemini Space Station Inc., the NASDAQ-listed crypto exchange led by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has officially launched its prediction markets platform, Gemini Predictions, marking the crypto exchange’s formal entry into the fast-growing market for regulated event-based trading in the United States.
The platform is now live across all US states, accessible via Gemini’s iOS app and website, and will offer zero trading fees for a limited time, the company said in a statement on Monday.
The rollout follows last week’s regulatory approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), clearing the way for Gemini to offer federally regulated prediction markets tied to real-world outcomes.
CFTC approval unlocks regulated event contracts
Earlier this year, Gemini Titan, the company’s derivatives affiliate, received approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), a licence required to list event-based derivatives in the US. The approval concluded a review process that began with Gemini’s initial application in March 2020.
Chief executive Tyler Winklevoss described the decision as the “conclusion of a five-year licensing process,” opening a new phase for Gemini’s derivatives strategy.
What Gemini Predictions offers
With regulatory clearance secured, Gemini Predictions allows users to trade event contracts, simple yes-or-no markets linked to future outcomes across a range of topics. Potential contracts include forecasts on cryptocurrency prices, technology companies, regulatory and policy decisions, as well as major global events.
Introducing Gemini Predictions, now live across all 50 US states 🇺🇲
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 15, 2025
Users can trade on outcomes of real world events with near instant execution and full transparency. pic.twitter.com/1wRhkLCEG5
Examples previously cited by the company include questions such as “Will Bitcoin end the year above $200,000?” and “Will Elon Musk’s X platform pay the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”
The format closely resembles products offered by competitors such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com, which have seen sharp growth following recent legal developments favouring prediction markets.
Prediction markets grow under crypto-friendly policy shift
Gemini’s launch comes amid a broader expansion of its product lineup under the Trump administration, which has adopted a more crypto-friendly, pro-business stance on digital asset regulation.
Interest in prediction markets has surged since a federal court overturned the CFTC’s long-standing prohibition on election-related contracts last year, prompting increased activity from fintech firms, exchanges and traditional financial players.
Looking ahead, Gemini is also considering expanding its US derivatives offering to include crypto futures, options and perpetual contracts. Perpetual futures, or “perps,” are among the most widely traded crypto derivatives globally, particularly across Asian markets.
However, US regulators have historically taken a cautious approach to approving such products, leaving their domestic rollout uncertain. Gemini said demand for these instruments remains strong internationally, even as regulatory constraints continue to shape the US market.
Execution now key as competition intensifies
Gemini enters a competitive field dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside platforms backed by traditional finance heavyweights such as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and CME Group. Coinbase is also reportedly preparing to launch an in-house prediction market powered by Kalshi, as the US-based cryptocurrency exchange accelerates its push to broaden the range of asset classes available on its platform.
ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently committed $2 billion to Polymarket, highlighting the accelerating convergence between traditional exchanges and decentralised event trading.
Gemini’s first earnings report as a public company is scheduled for 10 November 2025, with investors closely watching whether prediction markets and regulated derivatives can reignite growth following a sharp post-IPO stock decline.
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