Prediction market platform Polymarket has quietly updated its terms of service to block access in several Canadian provinces. In addition to Ontario, the restricted list now includes Alberta, British Columbia, and Quebec. The update was recently published on July 6.
Alberta’s iGaming Minister Dale Nally confirmed last week that Polymarket had geo‑fenced itself out of the province. “Polymarket made the decision themselves to geo‑fence themselves out,” Nally said Monday. “I think that was good news.” He urged Alberta gamblers to rely on the Alberta iGaming Corporation (AiGC) to ensure platforms are licenced and regulated locally.
Canada’s second commercial regulated iGaming market launched in Alberta on Monday, with more than 20 online casino and sportsbook sites going live on day one.
Ontario ban and settlement
Polymarket is already serving a two‑year ban in Ontario after settling with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) last year. The company admitted to violating provincial rules by offering short‑term yes/no “binary contracts.” Despite the ban, Polymarket has continued marketing in Ontario and other provinces, including signing Canadian‑facing sports partnerships.
The OSC has a long enforcement record, with more than 480 actions between 2003 and 2025, ranging from fines and settlements to quasi‑criminal prosecutions. Sanctions can include fines of up to CAD 10 million ($7 million) per conviction, jail terms of up to five years, and bans from trading or operating in Ontario.
Kalshi’s limited entry
U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi has entered Canada through a partnership with Toronto-based Wealthsimple. Announced last month, the collaboration offers event contracts in accordance with Canadian Investment Regulatory Organisation (CIRO) rules. But only contracts connected to economic forecasts, environmental outcomes, and financial indicators are permitted, while political events and sports betting remain prohibited.
CIRO also requires settlement periods of at least 30 days, ruling out short‑term markets common in sports betting. Wealthsimple Predict, scheduled to launch this summer, will host about 4,000 of Kalshi’s binary event contracts. Currently, only Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada are authorised to facilitate Canadian access to these contracts.
Regulatory oversight
Last April, the CIRO and the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) reaffirmed their oversight role, stressing that they may issue further guidance or impose additional restrictions if necessary.
The CSA serves as Canada’s umbrella body. It unites provincial and territorial regulators to harmonise rules, protect investors, and streamline access to capital markets. But enforcement varies by province or territory. Alberta’s framework also differs from Ontario’s by explicitly banning betting on political elections.
Global context
Since the start of the year, prediction markets have surged into mainstream finance, surpassing a monthly trading volume of $23.9 billion with politics and sports driving much of the activity. The industry is also regulated in most regions, such as the U.S. and Europe, attracting institutional capital and reshaping itself into a legitimate asset class. In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s approval has legitimised event contracts, while proposed federal rules cover political, economic, and sports markets.
Across Europe, operators are acquiring licences despite the continuous fragmentation. For one, users can only access markets that are legal in their jurisdiction. Meanwhile, in Asia, growth is strong. But there is uneven regulation: Singapore, for instance, imposes restrictions while other regions continue to experiment with limited frameworks.
Don’t just read the news, stay ahead of it. Subscribe HERE to SiGMA’s Top 10 News countdown for stories shaping iGaming’s future, weekly insights from the world’s biggest iGaming community, and exclusive subscriber-only offers.
