Singapore cracks down on illegal prediction market wagers
Singaporean authorities have detected a surge in wagers placed on the unregulated prediction platform Polymarket, despite its 2024 ban.
Singapore outlawed the platform, classifying it as an unregulated gambling site. The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) warned that participation violates local law and carries penalties of up to SGD10,000 (USD7,800), six months’ imprisonment, or both.
Residents may legally place bets through Singapore Pools, which offers lotteries, sports betting, and horse racing. Yet regulators note a growing appetite for prediction markets that extend beyond traditional gambling.
Rise in unregulated wagers
Officials have noted of the increasing activity on Polymarket, with wagers spanning high-profile events such as the Singapore Grand Prix and the 2025 general election, as well as everyday occurrences like weather conditions. Reports of daily bets have reached as high as SGD127,160 (USD100,000). On 17 April alone, participants staked SGD158,725 ($124,888) on whether temperatures would reach 33°C.
Additionally, aside from weather, users have bet on celebrity news and cultural events, emphasising the platform’s broad appeal.
How prediction markets work
Global prediction markets expanded rapidly in 2025, reaching an estimated USD63.5 billion in trading volume, nearly quadruple the previous year. Much of this growth was driven by Polymarket, a decentralised, crypto-based platform.
By contrast, Kalshi, a U.S.-based exchange, operates under regulation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). The divergence highlights why regulators worldwide, including Singapore, are increasingly concerned about unregulated wagers.
Polymarket allows users to buy “yes” or “no” shares tied to real-world outcomes, with payouts made in cryptocurrency. While Singapore is among more than 30 jurisdictions subject to geoblocking, decentralised access methods, VPNs, and crypto wallets make enforcement difficult.
Regulatory challenges
Singapore’s Remote Gambling Act of 2014 came into force in 2015. It prohibited most forms of online betting unless specifically exempted. It was replaced by the Gambling Control Act in 2022, allowing state-controlled operators like Singapore Pools and the Singapore Turf Club to offer remote betting, but under strict regulation.
This framework sheds light on Singapore’s zero-tolerance stance toward unregulated platforms like Polymarket. It treats them as illegal gambling sites. Regulators also argue that prediction markets blur the line between financial speculation and gambling. In addition, it complicates enforcement in the era of decentralised finance.
Risks and regional context
Authorities warn that unregulated platforms heighten risks and challenges, as users are exposed to fraud, addiction, and legal penalties.
Access to cryptocurrency wallets and decentralised platforms is one of the drivers of why some users are more prone to compulsive betting, particularly among younger, tech-savvy users. Moreover, some research indicates that Polymarkets’ insights have been inflated.
Neighbouring jurisdictions like Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Australia also classify prediction markets as illegal gambling. However, each applies slightly different enforcement approaches. Unlike U.S. regulators, Asian-Pacific regulators emphasise consumer protection and strict anti-gambling laws.
Other jurisdictions, such as the United States, allow regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, highlighting Singapore’s more conservative approach. The city-state continues to enforce one of the region’s strictest regimes on remote gambling, reflecting its determination to curb illicit betting in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.
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