Trump family eyes prediction market expansion: Report
The Trump family is repositioning its business interests away from traditional casinos and towards the rapidly expanding prediction market sector, according to a CNN report. Decades after U.S. President Donald Trump exited the casino industry, the report says his family is now exploring a new form of wagering built on financial-style contracts and cryptocurrency platforms.
The report details plans by Trump Media & Technology Group to launch a prediction platform known as Truth Predict. At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. has taken advisory and investment roles in major players such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Unlike earlier efforts in sports betting, which depended heavily on state approval, prediction markets are structured as financial instruments. This distinction places them under federal oversight, particularly through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than state gambling regulators.
States and casinos push back against fast-growing sector
Prediction markets have grown rapidly, with global trading volumes reaching billions of dollars weekly, according to industry data cited in the CNN report. These platforms allow users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes.
The growth of prediction market platforms has triggered legal disputes across multiple U.S. states. Authorities in jurisdictions such as Nevada, New Jersey and Arizona are challenging whether platforms like Kalshi are offering unlicensed gambling products. State officials said that sports-related contracts resemble traditional betting but bypass established rules, including taxation and responsible gambling requirements.
The CFTC, meanwhile, has signalled its intention to oversee the sector at a national level. This position has intensified tensions between state and federal authorities, with lawsuits and enforcement actions mounting on both sides.
The casino industry, represented by the American Gaming Association (AGA), has emerged as a leading opponent of prediction markets. Operators have argued that prediction markets undermine regulated sportsbooks by offering similar products without adhering to the same standards. The debate has also sparked increased lobbying activity in Washington, reflecting the high stakes involved as the sector evolves.
Based on the report, critics warn that certain markets, including those tied to geopolitical events, could be vulnerable to manipulation or misuse. The rapid expansion of the industry has led some observers to describe it as operating in an environment with limited safeguards.
Trump and the broader gaming industry
In February 2025, gaming industry veteran Jonas Diego told SiGMA News that the broader gaming sector is watching the Trump administration closely, with expectations of a business-friendly environment. Industry leaders believe that policies promoting reduced regulation and economic growth could support both traditional gaming and emerging sectors such as prediction markets.
According to insights gathered by SiGMA News, stakeholders anticipate continued expansion in international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and South America. While uncertainties remain around regulatory direction, the administration’s pro-business stance is viewed as a potential driver for innovation, including the integration of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence into gaming.
At the same time, recent data from AGA highlights how prediction markets are already reshaping the competitive landscape. Advertising data in the U.S. shows that promotional activity for these platforms is increasing, even as marketing by licensed sportsbooks declines.
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