Advertising gap widens as prediction market ads surge in US
Digital advertising for prediction market platforms is rising in the United States, with new research showing a growing share of sports betting-related ads are not subject to state gaming regulations.
A report released by the American Gaming Association (AGA) analysed digital advertising activity connected to online sportsbooks and sports event contract platforms, often described as prediction markets. The study found that as advertising from licensed operators declined, promotion for event contract platforms increased and reached more consumers.
The findings arrive as prediction markets draw rising attention from policymakers and analysts. Separate research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming has suggested that prediction markets could grow into a $1 trillion industry in the U.S., though the sector faces regulatory challenges and legal uncertainty.
Prediction market ads expand online
According to the AGA report, advertising patterns shifted sharply last year. “Digital ad impressions for online sportsbooks fell by nearly 14 percent in 2025, while impressions for sports event contract ads surged,” the report states.
The research indicates that traditional sportsbook marketing activity declined even as overall exposure to betting-related advertising remained strong due to the growth of prediction market promotions.
The AGA found that approximately 15 percent of sports betting-related ads seen by consumers in 2025 were not required to follow state-mandated responsible gaming standards. This reflects the regulatory distinction between state-licensed sportsbooks and platforms offering event contracts, which are often structured differently under U.S. law.
“Consumers are increasingly exposed to digital ads promoting prediction market products, often featuring students interacting with the platform,” the report said. This marketing approach suggests companies are targeting younger, digitally active audiences through social media and other online advertising channels.
The AGA said it analysed digital advertising data compiled by Sensor Tower, using its Pathmatics platform to track campaigns across display advertising, video, mobile applications and social media.
Oversight gap in sports betting ads
The research highlights an emerging disparity between the advertising rules applied to licensed sportsbooks and those affecting prediction market platforms.
State- and tribal-regulated sportsbooks operate under strict advertising requirements, including responsible gambling messaging and regulatory oversight. Prediction markets, however, may not be subject to the same obligations depending on how they are classified.
“Nearly one-in-five digital sports betting ads seen by consumers last year didn’t need to comply with state-mandated responsible gaming regulations,” the AGA said.
The gap appears to be widening. The report found that during the first two months of 2026, almost half of digital sports betting advertisements viewed by consumers fell outside state gaming advertising standards. “Nearly half of all digital sports betting ads seen by consumers in the first two months of 2026 did not comply with state gaming regulations,” the study states.
The AGA said the results show “a widening gap in advertising oversight between licensed sportsbooks and prediction market platforms”.
Prediction markets gain momentum
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of events such as sports matches, elections, or economic indicators. These products resemble betting markets but are often structured as financial instruments.
Sports-related event contracts are expected to represent the largest share of that potential market. Analysts estimate that sports forecasts could account for about $435 billion in trading volume, while financial and cryptocurrency-related contracts may contribute another $310 billion. Other categories could include political events, news developments and cultural outcomes.
Meanwhile, some prediction market platforms have introduced contract structures similar to parlay bets, allowing users to combine multiple outcomes in a single trade. Analysts earlier said these products can attract both bettors and speculative traders by offering larger potential payouts.
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