US President Donald Trump has publicly backed Trump prediction markets and defended the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) authority over the rapidly expanding sector, marking a notable shift from comments made earlier this year criticising betting on global conflicts. In a post published on Truth Social, Trump said it was “critically important” that the CFTC maintains “exclusive authority” over prediction markets and argued the industry should be protected as a growing part of the US financial system.
Trump’s latest comments come as prediction markets face mounting legal and political pressure across the United States. State regulators, casino groups and lawmakers are increasingly challenging whether sports and political event contracts resemble unlicensed gambling products.
Trump backs CFTC oversight of prediction markets
Trump described prediction markets as a strategic financial industry that the United States must defend against international competition. “It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The US President also praised CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, stating the regulator was establishing “rules of the road” that could become the “Gold Standard” for the country. In addition, Trump said other countries were attempting to compete with the United States in both cryptocurrency and prediction markets, which he described as major industries tied to America’s economic leadership.
Trump contrasts earlier criticism of prediction markets
Trump’s support for prediction markets contrasts sharply with remarks he made in April, when he criticised betting on geopolitical conflicts following the arrest of a US soldier accused of using classified information to place wagers on Polymarket. Speaking from the Oval Office at the time, Trump said the rise of predictive betting platforms reflected a world that had “become somewhat of a casino”.
“I was never much in favour of it. I don’t like it conceptually. It is what it is. I’m not happy with any of that stuff,” Trump said. The comments followed allegations that US Army Special Forces master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information linked to a military operation involving Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket contracts. Federal prosecutors alleged Van Dyke placed approximately $33,000 in wagers before the operation and later earned nearly $410,000 from the trades.
The case intensified concerns around insider trading, market manipulation and the use of sensitive government information within prediction markets. At the time, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig warned that anyone engaging in fraud or insider trading in prediction markets would face “the full force of the law”.
As I've stated repeatedly, if you commit fraud, insider trade, or manipulate markets, you will face the full force of the law. Today, the @CFTC took parallel action with @SDNYnews to charge an individual with insider trading involving event contracts.
— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) May 28, 2026
⁰Our Division of… https://t.co/LZbHMY766M
Recently, the CFTC also filed an insider trading complaint against a Google software engineer accused of using confidential internal search data to generate $1.2 million in profits on the prediction platform Polymarket.
Prediction markets face growing political pressure
Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing sectors in financial technology and online wagering, with billions of dollars in weekly trading volume flowing through platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
Unlike traditional sports betting operators, prediction markets are structured as financial contracts regulated at the federal level through the CFTC rather than state gambling regulators. That distinction has triggered legal disputes across several US states, including Nevada, New Jersey and Arizona, where regulators argue that sports-event contracts resemble unlicensed gambling products.
Meanwhile, the casino industry has increased pressure on regulators. The American Gaming Association (AGA) has argued that prediction market operators compete directly with licensed sportsbooks without complying with the same taxation, consumer protection and responsible gambling standards. Despite criticism, prediction markets continue attracting major investors, cryptocurrency firms and technology companies seeking exposure to the fast-growing sector.
Trump family linked to prediction market expansion
Trump’s latest comments also come amid growing ties between the Trump family and the prediction market industry. According to previous reports, Trump Media & Technology Group is exploring plans to launch a prediction platform called Truth Predict. The feature is reportedly being developed through an exclusive partnership with Crypto.com. At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. has taken advisory and investment roles connected to prediction market companies including Kalshi and Polymarket. Industry analysts say prediction markets have benefited significantly from political uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and public statements.
During periods of heightened geopolitical tension earlier this year, hundreds of millions of dollars were reportedly wagered on contracts tied to Iran, ceasefire negotiations and potential US military action. Economists and market observers have argued that political volatility is increasingly driving speculative trading activity across prediction market platforms.
Prediction market regulation debate intensifies
The rapid expansion of prediction markets has intensified debate over regulation, transparency and market safeguards. Critics argue that certain contracts tied to wars, elections and geopolitical events could be vulnerable to manipulation or unethical trading behaviour.
Supporters, however, claim prediction markets improve forecasting accuracy and represent a new category of financial innovation. Trump’s latest endorsement comes at a time when there is ongoing debate about whether prediction markets should remain under federal oversight through the CFTC or be regulated individually by states as gambling products.
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