Trump on prediction markets bets on conflicts: It is what it is
U.S. President Donald Trump has criticised the rapid growth of prediction markets tied to global conflict, describing the modern geopolitical landscape as resembling a betting floor. Speaking with reporters, Trump said he was uncomfortable with wagering on world events, even as such platforms continue to expand.
“Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino, and you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe, in every place doing these betting things,” he said. “I was never much in favour of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”
Trump added that the proliferation of online platforms offering bets on political and military outcomes reflects a broader shift in global dynamics.
“Now, I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff, but they have all these different sites; they have predictive markets. It’s a crazy world. It’s a much different world than it was,” he said. The U.S. President’s remarks come as online prediction markets have surged in popularity, driven in part by uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions and policy decisions.
Insider trading case raises market concerns
According to a CNBC report, U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was arrested for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket related to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The U.S. Department of Justice said Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing “Operation Absolute Resolve,” which led to Maduro’s arrest in early January. Prosecutors allege he placed wagers totalling around $33,000 in the days leading up to the mission, ultimately earning nearly $410,000.
The indictment claims the bets were based on knowledge of planned U.S. military action, raising questions about the potential misuse of non-public information on prediction platforms. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also filed civil charges, accusing Van Dyke of violating the Commodity Exchange Act.
“I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law,” Michael Selig, CFTC Chairman, said in a statement. “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.”
“All members of the government, including service members, owe a duty of trust and confidentiality to the government and the American people,” David Miller, CFTC Director of Enforcement, added.
Markets thrive on policy uncertainty and global tensions
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have seen rising activity linked to Trump’s political decisions and public statements.
According to analysts, Trump’s unpredictable style has become a central driver of trading volumes. At the height of tensions involving Iran earlier this year, hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered on possible outcomes, including whether the U.S. would engage in military intervention or pursue a ceasefire.
Economists and market observers have noted that political uncertainty, particularly from high-profile leaders, has effectively created a new category of speculative trading. Beyond conflict-related wagers, users are also betting on issues ranging from commodity prices to entertainment outcomes, reflecting the broadening scope of these platforms.
Trump family eyes prediction market expansion
According to a March report, the Trump family’s Trump Media & Technology Group is working to launch a platform called Truth Predict, signalling a move away from traditional casino operations towards financial-style betting products.
At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. has taken advisory and investment roles in companies including Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have benefited from increased market activity.
Unlike conventional sports betting, prediction markets operate as financial instruments, placing them under the oversight of the CFTC rather than state-level gambling authorities. This regulatory distinction has sparked legal disputes across the U.S., where several state officials argue that certain contracts resemble unlicensed gambling products.
The sector’s rapid growth has also drawn opposition from the American Gaming Association (AGA), which argues that prediction markets compete with licensed sportsbooks without adhering to the same regulatory standards.
Despite criticism, the industry continues to expand, with trading volumes reaching billions of dollars per week and growing interest from investors and technology firms.
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