US soldier charged in Maduro-Polymarket insider betting case
A US Army Special Forces soldier has been charged with allegedly earning more than $400,000 by using classified information to place bets on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro via the prediction platform Polymarket. The case, brought by the US Department of Justice, is believed to be the first prosecution linking insider trading laws to prediction markets.
Alleged use of classified information
Prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant in the US Army, used sensitive intelligence in the weeks leading up to Maduro’s capture on 3 January to place wagers on Polymarket. The indictment states that Van Dyke had access to “sensitive, non-public, classified information” about the operation from early December 2025, weeks before placing the trades. The bets predicted that US forces would enter Venezuela and that Maduro would be removed from power, outcomes that later materialised.
Van Dyke, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, has been charged with offences including fraud, theft of non-public information and unlawful financial transactions. Civil charges have also been filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
A landmark case for prediction markets
Court documents show he placed around 13 bets on Polymarket between 27 December and early January, focusing on US military involvement and Maduro’s removal from power. Authorities claim those bets generated more than $400,000 in profit, representing a return of over ten times his initial stake.
Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 23, 2026
When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation.
Insider trading has no place on Polymarket.…
Officials said the case marks a significant moment for the regulation of emerging financial platforms. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stressed that military personnel are prohibited from using classified information for personal financial gain. Polymarket said it had flagged the suspicious activity and cooperated with authorities, stating that insider trading has no place on its platform.
Surge in betting before Maduro’s capture
The charges follow intense scrutiny of Polymarket activity in the weeks leading up to Maduro’s removal, when traders poured millions into markets tied to Venezuela’s political future. Markets predicting Maduro’s exit saw probabilities surge dramatically, from single digits to near certainty, within hours of the operation becoming public. Trading volumes in related markets ranged from under $1 million to nearly $3 million.
One account, created shortly before the operation and now being alleged to be of Van Dyke, placed more than $30,000 on Maduro leaving office by the end of January. Following the capture, the position generated profits exceeding $400,000, raising immediate concerns about possible insider knowledge. At the time the bets were placed, the likelihood of Maduro’s removal was priced at just over 5 per cent, making the timing and scale of the wagers highly unusual.
Ethical and regulatory concerns
The episode has intensified debate over the ethics of prediction markets, particularly those tied to geopolitical conflict. Polymarket, launched in 2020, allows users to bet on real-world outcomes, including elections, economic events and, increasingly, military developments. Previous markets have included speculation on potential conflicts such as an India–Pakistan escalation.
Critics argue that such markets risk monetising sensitive global events. Some analysts have warned that betting on war or political instability may distort public perception and incentivise the misuse of privileged information.
This prompted US lawmakers to introduce legislation to ban prediction market contracts tied to wars. Representative Mike Levin and California Senator Adam Schiff unveiled the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act, or DEATH BETS Act. The legislation is aimed at banning prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, terrorism, and individual deaths, arguing that such bets pose serious ethical and national security risks. Apart from this, six US senators, led by California’s Adam Schiff, formally urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to categorically ban prediction market contracts that resolve based on death, warning the products pose serious national security and ethical risks.
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