Two US lawmakers have introduced new legislation aimed at banning prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, terrorism, and individual deaths, arguing that such bets pose serious ethical and national security risks. Representative Mike Levin and California Senator Adam Schiff unveiled the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act, or DEATH BETS Act. This bicameral bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act.
The proposal would explicitly prohibit any entity registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from listing or clearing contracts that involve or reference violent events such as terrorism, war, assassination, or an individual’s death.
“Betting on war and death should be illegal,” Levin said, warning that gaps in existing law allow traders to profit from violent events. He pointed to previous instances where prediction markets saw massive wagers on geopolitical developments, including more than $500 million reportedly bet on the timing of potential US military strikes on Iran. More than $500 million was staked on contracts tied to the timing of attacks, including bets that correctly predicted on 28 February (Saturday) as the date of the first strikes. Separate markets on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power drew a further $150 million in wagers.
Closing regulatory gaps
Under the current Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC already has the authority to block contracts tied to terrorism, war, or assassination if the agency determines they are against the public interest. However, the decision ultimately rests on the regulator’s discretion.
Lawmakers backing the DEATH BETS Act argue that this flexibility leaves room for controversial markets to emerge. The new bill would codify an outright ban, removing the need for case-by-case determinations by regulators.
Schiff warned that markets tied to violent outcomes could create incentives for people with privileged information to profit. “Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off classified information, our national security is jeopardised, and violence is encouraged,” Schiff said, adding that prediction markets have become the “Wild West” without stronger oversight.
Controversial prediction contracts
The legislation follows several high-profile prediction contracts offered on event trading platforms. One example involved speculation on whether Ali Khamenei would be removed as Iran’s supreme leader. The contract reportedly generated about $54 million in trading volume on the platform Kalshi before being paused.
I’m introducing a bill to ban bets on war and death in prediction markets.
— Adam Schiff (@SenAdamSchiff) March 10, 2026
Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of nonpublic information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged.
Congress must act. pic.twitter.com/ahb9EczNvP
Levin has also previously raised concerns about similar “death contracts” listed on offshore exchanges, including bets on whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power and whether the Ukrainian town of Myrnohrad would fall to Russian forces.
What the DEATH BETS Act would do
If passed, the legislation would amend Section 5c of the Commodity Exchange Act and require registered exchanges to reject any contracts that:
- Reference or are based on terrorism, assassination, war, or similar violent activities
- Involve or closely correlate with the death of an individual
By explicitly including death-related contracts, an area not clearly addressed in the current law, the bill aims to eliminate loopholes that allow speculative betting on violent outcomes.
The proposal comes amid growing scrutiny of event-based prediction markets as regulators and lawmakers debate how such platforms should operate within the US financial system.
Banning “perverse” death prediction markets
The DEATH BETS Act marks the latest attempt by Schiff to ban “perverse” death prediction markets. Last month, six US senators, led by Schiff, formally urged the CFTC to categorically ban prediction market contracts that resolve based on death, warning the products pose serious national security and ethical risks.
In a letter sent to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, the lawmakers called on the regulator to “clearly reiterate” that any contract tied to physical injury or death is prohibited under existing rules and to enforce the law more aggressively. The letter raises the senators’ concern about “prediction contracts that incentivise physical injury or death, and the grave and perverse moral and geopolitical implications of these contracts.”
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