The UK Gambling Commission has warned that rising use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) is making it harder to accurately track illegal online gambling activity, potentially masking the true scale of the black market.
No sustained growth or seasonal pattern
In its latest update, covering data from July 2025 to February 2026, the regulator said trends in consumer engagement with unlicensed gambling websites remain irregular rather than steadily increasing over 21 months.
According to the UKGC, the latest data shows no consistent or sustained growth in activity. A spike recorded in autumn 2024 was not repeated in the same period in 2025, suggesting that illegal gambling traffic does not follow a predictable seasonal pattern.
VPN use complicates data accuracy
A key challenge identified in the report is the growing use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs), which allow users to mask their online activity. The Commission linked increased VPN adoption to the introduction of the Online Safety Act in July 2025, which prompted some users to bypass online restrictions. To account for hidden traffic, the regulator has already applied a 30 per cent uplift to its estimates. However, it now warns that an even greater share of activity may be obscured.
Statistics from the UK’s communications regulator, Ofcom, along with an AI-driven digital data platform, Similarweb, that offers real-time market insights, back this concern. Ofcom reported a sharp rise in VPN usage in July 2025, followed by a gradual decline, but still stabilising at around 40 per cent above pre-legislation levels. Similarweb observed a comparable trend, albeit with a smaller initial spike.
Limits of web traffic estimates
The Commission stressed that web traffic data carries significant margins of error and should be treated as an indicator of trends rather than a precise measurement of total betting activity. It also cautioned that no single dataset can fully capture the scale of illegal gambling, as some access methods remain invisible to tracking tools.
This reflects the regulator’s broader view of illegal gambling as a multi-dimensional issue, requiring a combination of data sources to build a clearer picture.
UK gambling ad spend shifts towards unregulated firms
However, a broader market shift suggests a more complex picture. New figures by market intelligence group WARC for the trade association the Betting and Gaming Counci indicate that growth in UK gambling advertising is increasingly being driven by operators outside the regulated system, rather than licensed bookmakers and casinos. While the market is projected to reach nearly £1.9bn (€2.18 billion) by autumn 2026, regulated firms are scaling back their spend, even as unlicensed and offshore operators expand rapidly, particularly across online channels.
The data points to a widening gulf between the two sides of the market. It shows that while total gambling advertising spend is forecast to grow by 5.4 per cent, licensed firms are expected to cut back under tax and margin pressure, leaving more room for unregulated competitors. During the pandemic, regulated companies accounted for 83.8 per cent of gambling advertising spend. That share is now projected to fall to 52.3 per cent, and the report says it is likely to drop below half by 2028.
UK gambling affordability checks debate
In another development, the UK government has been urged to halt the rollout of gambling affordability checks amid concerns about transparency, consumer impact, and broader implications for the regulated betting market. The debate has intensified following intervention from Dr James Noyes, a previously vocal supporter of the policy, who has now called for a pause until ongoing pilot schemes are fully evaluated.
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