Gibraltar announces prediction market regulations framework
Gibraltar has officially announced its dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, in what Gibraltar’s Minister of Justice, Trade, and Industry, Nigel Feetham, has declared a world first. The regulations, which now form part of Gibraltar’s Gambling Act of 2025, are titled ‘Prediction Market Regulations 2026’ and have officially come into force.
Key highlights in Gibraltar’s prediction market framework
The regulations make some necessary yet important definitions clear for Gibraltar law. They dictate that ‘prediction market’ refers to a system, platform, or arrangement which facilitates the making, trading, or settlement of ‘prediction market contracts’, a term which itself refers to a contract, arrangement, or instrument which has a value determined by reference to the occurrence or non-occurrence of a relevant event or outcome.
Possibly the key standout in Gibraltar’s new framework for prediction markets is regulation 4 (3), which dictates that prediction market activity is not to be treated as betting, gaming, or lottery for the purposes of the Act “solely by reason of its characteristics as prediction market activity”.
Notably, the regulations include a section dedicated to prohibited or restricted contracts. It states that Gibraltar’s gambling authority has the ability to prohibit or restrict the listing of “a class of prediction market contracts where it considers that the contract would be contrary to the regulatory objectives or to the public interest”.
Contracts which could be prohibited or restricted include those related to criminal conduct, death, serious injury or terrorism, the occurrence of war or armed conflict, and any event or outcome which is not capable of objective settlement, as well as any matter which may give rise to significant manipulation, disorderly trading, consumer harm, or reputational risk to Gibraltar.
Additionally, the new regulations dictate that an authorised prediction market operator must establish and maintain effective arrangements to ensure fair and orderly training.
The regulations continue that the arrangements must include systems and controls which are designed to prevent, detect, and address matters of market manipulation, insider trading, wash trading, and collusive or disorderly trading. Authorised operators must also establish and maintain effective arrangements to identify, manage, and disclose conflicts of interest.
Other requirements listed within the regulations include that operators must provide participants with accurate and clear information, and that there must be appropriate systems in place against money laundering and terrorist financing.
A ‘world first’ for the emergent sector
Discussing the landmark announcement, which Feetham said was a delivery on a commitment made some months ago, he said that he had “identified a clear commercial opportunity to further diversify Gibraltar’s economy through the emerging prediction markets sector” earlier in the year.
After this realisation, he spoke about the effort to introduce Gibraltar’s new gambling legislation, which enabled the licensing of prediction markets as betting exchanges, with efforts then continuing with the announcement having been made that Gibraltar would soon intend to introduce the world’s first bespoke regulatory framework for prediction markets.
“Since then, I have engaged extensively with industry leaders internationally to better understand the technology, market infrastructure, and regulatory considerations underpinning this rapidly evolving sector,” he said.
Feetham said that Gibraltar will soon license the first prediction market operator under this new regime, as he said that an Approval in Principle has already been granted to a second operator and that a further approval is expected in the coming weeks.
The Justice, Trade, and Industry Minister commented that Gibraltar’s prediction market framework is the result of months of close collaboration with industry participants, “whose expertise and engagement have helped shape a regime that is both innovative and robust”.
“More importantly, it provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly developing global industry while creating new opportunities to attract investment, support high-value employment, and further diversify Gibraltar’s economy.”
Feetham remarked that this development is not simply a new regulatory framework, but rather “a statement of intent”. He continued that the ambition is for Gibraltar to be positioned as “a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards”.
Gibraltar was not alone in its public intent to establish a prediction market framework, as another iGaming hub in the Mediterranean, that of Malta, has also made its intentions clear previously that it would like to set a precedent in Europe by establishing its own set of regulations.
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