Polymarket extends lead and dominates prediction markets across English-speaking countries
Prediction markets have become one of the most discussed segments at the intersection of iGaming, fintech, and financial markets. Driven by growing interest in trading on sporting events, elections, the economy, and other real-world events, platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi continue to compete for market share in a sector where regulation remains under debate. However, the latest figures released by Blask show that, in practice, the market is effectively dominated by just two companies.
A study by Blask, a market intelligence company, analysed the five largest English-speaking markets: the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Ireland. The data uses the BAP (Brand Awareness Position) indicator, a Blask metric that measures a brand’s share of user attention within a specific category. The results reveal a highly uneven landscape. Polymarket leads in every market analysed and, in three of them, operates with virtually no meaningful competition. Kalshi is the only company capable of competing for market share, although its strength is concentrated exclusively in the US and Australia.
Polymarket dominates nearly the entire category
The data shows that Polymarket ranks first in all five countries analysed. In the US, the platform accounts for 66.62 per cent of BAP. In Australia, its share stands at 61.84 per cent. Although these are the company’s lowest figures among the markets surveyed, they still represent a comfortable lead.
The situation is even more favourable in other countries. Polymarket reaches 99.1 per cent of BAP in Ireland, while the figure reaches 94.46 per cent in the UK and 89.61 per cent in Canada. In practice, these numbers indicate that the platform has captured nearly all user attention in the prediction markets category across these three countries.
According to industry experts, this performance is directly linked to the advantage of being an early entrant in the sector. Polymarket gained significant market traction during the 2024 US presidential election, when millions of users began following its real-time probabilities as an alternative to traditional election polls. Since then, the platform has expanded its offering to include sports, economics, international politics, and entertainment.
Kalshi’s strength is concentrated in just two countries
Although it ranks second in nearly every market analysed, Kalshi’s performance varies considerably depending on the region. In the US, the company reaches approximately 30 per cent of BAP, while in Australia it records just over 36 per cent. These are the only markets where there is effective competition between the two leading platforms.
In the remaining countries, Kalshi’s presence is much more limited, with shares of just 4.38 per cent in the UK, 8.58 per cent in Canada and no more than 0.22 per cent in Ireland. Part of its competitive advantage in the US stems from its regulatory positioning.
Kalshi operates as an event contracts exchange supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator responsible for US futures and derivatives markets. This regulatory framework distinguishes the company from traditional sports betting operators and acts as an important source of credibility for investors and users. It also helps explain why Kalshi is able to compete much more effectively in the US than in other markets.
Competitors have virtually disappeared
After Polymarket and Kalshi, the gap to the remaining competitors becomes substantial. In the US, DraftKings ranks third among prediction market operators but records only 1.38 per cent of BAP. This is notable because the company has one of the largest customer bases in the US sports betting industry and invests heavily in marketing. Even so, its presence in this specific segment remains very limited.
In the other countries, third place alternates between Myriad and Manifold, both consistently below 1.1 per cent market share. Other well-known platforms, including Robinhood, IBKR, PredictIt, Opinion, Novig, Triad, and Hedgehog, appear only marginally, often registering less than 0.1 per cent of the indicator. The figures suggest that, despite attracting multiple companies, the prediction market sector remains highly concentrated.
Blask’s analysis divides the market into two distinct scenarios. In the US and Australia, there is a functional duopoly. Combined, Polymarket and Kalshi account for more than 95 per cent of consumer attention in this product category. In Canada, the UK, and Ireland, the situation is closer to a Polymarket monopoly. Kalshi maintains only a symbolic presence, while the remaining operators barely register in the metrics.
This level of concentration highlights how the first mover advantage continues to be a decisive factor in a market that is still relatively new.
Regulation remains the main challenge
Despite the sector’s rapid growth, the regulatory environment remains one of the biggest obstacles to its expansion. In the US, prediction markets are at the centre of a dispute between federal authorities and state regulators over who has jurisdiction to supervise these products. While companies such as Kalshi argue that their contracts are financial instruments subject exclusively to CFTC oversight, several states contend that certain activities are, in practice, equivalent to sports betting.
In recent months, several court actions have intensified this conflict, including decisions that temporarily restricted Kalshi’s operations in certain U.S. states. At the same time, the CFTC is developing a new set of rules specifically for prediction markets, seeking to establish clearer criteria for contracts related to sports, politics, and other events.
Despite the regulatory challenges and the market’s ongoing uncertainty, the sector continues to attract interest from major technology companies and financial institutions. Comments reported by The New York Times last week indicated that Mark Zuckerberg encouraged his teams to explore partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, while his company is also developing a similar platform.
For now, however, Blask’s data shows that the market remains highly concentrated. Polymarket has established a lead that will be difficult to challenge, while Kalshi remains the only competitor capable of exerting meaningful competitive pressure, primarily in the US and Australia. The key question over the coming months will be whether Kalshi can expand its international presence and, above all, whether any new platform will be able to break the dominance currently held by the sector’s two leaders.
This article was first published on the Portuguese SiGMA News page on 1 July 2026.
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