German regulator puts legal online gambling share at 77%
A regulator-backed survey suggests almost four-fifths of German online gambling spend now goes through licensed operators, but the illegal market remains large enough to shape the coming review of the country’s gambling rules.
Germany’s gambling regulator has moved to reclaim the argument over the size of the country’s online black market, publishing a study that puts the unregulated share at 22.97% and the channelisation rate at 77.03%.
The study, commissioned by the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, or GGL, and carried out by Blockchain Research Lab, estimates the illegal online market was worth about €547m in 2024. It is based on an online survey of 2,000 people who had used online betting, poker or casino products in the previous year.
“The scientifically calculated channelisation rate confirms our previous assumptions about the extent of the black market,” GGL chair Ronald Benter said in the regulator’s press release.
A different picture of the market
The findings matter because the scale of illegal gambling has become one of the sharpest points of dispute in Germany’s regulatory debate. Operators and trade bodies have argued for months that strict limits on deposits, stakes and advertising are sending customers offshore.
Last autumn, the German Sports Betting Association struck a very different note, saying there were 382 illegal German-language sports betting websites against just 34 legal ones. “Online, it’s 11:1 in favour of the black market and that puts players at risk,” said DSWV president Mathias Dahms.
The new study does not deny that illegal sites are plentiful. Its own survey found that unlicensed brands made up 74.6% of the distinct operators identified by respondents. But those brands accounted for only 20.3% of total mentions, while licensed operators drew 79.7%. The contrast suggests a crowded offshore fringe, but a market still concentrated around licensed names.
That also helps explain why earlier estimates looked so much worse. The report says previous studies used very different methods, ranging from traffic data and tax proxies to panel tracking of site visits. One industry-backed analysis cited in the report put channelisation at about 50.7% in March 2023. But the authors argue that visit-based measures say little about how much money was actually wagered or lost.
Why the argument is still alive
Even on the new numbers, the black market is far from marginal. The report found unlicensed platforms accounted for 22.4% of total stakes and 22.97% of losses, with players using those sites reporting higher average monthly spending.
Germany’s licensed gambling sector remains an important source of public revenue. Earlier market reporting showed licensed operators paid €2.5bn in gambling taxes in 2025, with sports betting and online casino products helping drive a stronger final quarter even as annual receipts slipped slightly.
For the GGL, the answer is tougher enforcement, not weaker rules. “Our measures will also be reflected in market shares in the medium term,” Benter said. “The fight against illegal online gambling is, however, a marathon, not a sprint.”
Stakes for the 2026 review
Germany is moving towards a full review of the 2021 Interstate Gambling Treaty by the end of 2026, and the black market question sits at the centre of it. Operators want a more workable legal market. Regulators insist that consumer protection cannot simply be traded away because offshore sites ignore the rules.
The report reflects that tension. It says measures such as stake caps and deposit limits can weaken the competitiveness of licensed operators, while also warning that any attempt to curb the black market must not come at the cost of effective player protection. Its answer is a harder line on illegal providers rather than a retreat from safeguards.
For now, the new study gives the regulator the figure it wanted: evidence that legal operators still command most of the market.
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