JP Morgan estimates steady Macau GGR in early January
Macau’s casino gaming market has opened 2026 with what analysts describe as a steady performance, though no official revenue data has yet been released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). The latest official figures available cover full-year of 2025, when Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP 247.4 billion ($30.9 billion), according to data published by the regulator.
In a research note published on 12 January, JP Morgan said Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) totalled MOP 8.05 billion ($1.0 billion) over the first 11 days of January, equivalent to an average of MOP 731 million ($91 million) per day. The research note was cited by trade publication GGRAsia.
Analyst estimates indicate stabilisation
JP Morgan said the early January estimates indicate a stable trend following softer performance at the end of last year. The bank noted that average daily GGR in late 2025 had fallen to between MOP 620 million ($77 million) and MOP 630 million ($78 million), which it attributed partly to weak VIP hold and seasonal factors.
According to the JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian, daily GGR last week averaged around MOP 692 million ($86 million), following what they described as a stronger “long weekend” period at the start of the year, when daily revenue was estimated at around MOP 800 million ($100 million). The bank said this coincided with public holidays on the Chinese mainland at the beginning of January, citing holiday designations by China’s State Council. No official confirmation of those holiday dates was identified in public government releases at the time of writing.
The analysts wrote that the recent performance should help ease investor concerns about a broader slowdown in gaming demand. They added that the late-2025 dip was “dragged down by (very) poor VIP luck and seasonality ahead of the long new-year weekend”.
Cityscape view of Macau, China. (Source: Canva)
2026 driven by mass-market growth
Looking beyond the opening weeks of the year, the bank forecast that Macau’s GGR for January as a whole could rise by at least 15 percent year-on-year, based on its internal modelling. It said this could support first-quarter 2026 GGR growth of around 13 percent compared with the same period last year.
For full-year 2026, JP Morgan forecast GGR growth of between 5 and 6 percent. The bank expects this to be driven primarily by the mass-market segment, including mass tables and slot machines, where it projects growth of 7 to 8 percent. By contrast, it expects VIP GGR to decline by around 5 percent year-on-year, citing a high comparison base in 2025 due to favourable luck.
The analysts also said profit growth for Macau’s gaming sector could outpace topline expansion in 2026. They forecast industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth of 6 to 7 percent, compared with their GGR growth outlook.
JP Morgan linked this to what it described as a potential improvement in operating leverage after 2025, when industry EBITDA increased by around 6 percent despite GGR rising by approximately 9 percent. “Even with a likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026,” the analysts wrote.
No official January data released
At present, the JP Morgan estimates remain the only publicly cited assessment of Macau’s gaming revenue for early January. No comparable early-month GGR estimates for January 2026 were identified from other investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, Citi, UBS, Jefferies or Bernstein.
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