2026 FIFA World Cup drives prediction markets to historic highs

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be remembered not only for Spain’s title victory or Cristiano Ronaldo’s final appearance at the tournament. It also became the largest event ever recorded for prediction markets. During just over a month of competition, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket recorded tens of billions of dollars in trading across World Cup related contracts, attracting millions of new users and establishing this trading model as one of the most promising developments in the future of sports betting.

Although different companies and analysts report varying figures for total trading volume, they all reach the same conclusion: no sporting event has ever generated as much interest in prediction markets.

The figures vary, but the trend is unmistakable

One of the first challenges in analysing the performance of prediction markets is the absence of a single methodology for measuring platform activity. Each company includes a different set of markets, contracts and trading categories, which explains why the reported figures differ significantly.

TickerTracker, for example, estimated approximately $13.8 billion in trading between 11 June and 19 July across individual World Cup markets available on Kalshi. The study excludes parlays and other tournament related contracts. Later estimates suggested that Kalshi’s total World Cup trading volume exceeded $22 billion, while the company itself stated that the tournament generated approximately $27 billion in trading throughout the competition.

At first glance, these figures appear contradictory. In practice, however, they represent different ways of measuring the same event. While TickerTracker analysed only specific football markets, the broader estimates include additional World Cup related contracts, different trading categories and proprietary methodologies used by the platform.

Regardless of the methodology used, all analyses point to the same conclusion: the 2026 FIFA World Cup became the largest event in Kalshi’s history.

Kalshi exceeds expectations

Even before the tournament began, analysts projected that the World Cup could transform the sports prediction market. Those expectations were ultimately surpassed. In addition to record trading volume, Kalshi reported that approximately three million new users joined the platform during the tournament.

The market dedicated to predicting the World Cup champion also attracted significant attention. According to the company, contracts related to the tournament winner generated approximately $1.9 billion in trading, making it one of the most successful products ever launched on the platform.

The figures highlight an important shift in consumer behaviour. Rather than relying exclusively on traditional sportsbooks, millions of users traded contracts whose prices changed continuously as new information emerged throughout the tournament, bringing sports betting closer to the mechanics of financial markets.

Argentina and Messi attracted the greatest interest

Data compiled by TickerTracker provides insight into user behaviour during the tournament. Argentina was the most traded national team throughout the World Cup, generating approximately $1.16 billion in contract value. It was followed by:

• France: approximately $900 million;
• England: approximately $730 million;
• Spain: approximately $726 million;
• Mexico: approximately $680 million.

Interest also extended to individual player markets. Lionel Messi finished the tournament as the most traded player on the platform, with approximately $147 million in contracts. He was followed by:

• Kylian Mbappé;
• Erling Haaland;
• Harry Kane;
• Lamine Yamal.

Messi’s position at the top was not unexpected. The 2026 FIFA World Cup was widely regarded as his final appearance at the tournament. At the age of 39, the Argentine once again guided his national team to the final, promoting continuous trading among investors and bettors following his final World Cup campaign.

The final also made history

Even the final between Spain and Argentina set new records. According to TickerTracker, approximately $795 million was traded in markets related to the final. However, this figure requires important context. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi did not offer a dedicated market for the winner of the final match. As a result, the estimate includes both contracts directly related to the match and trading involving both teams in the World Cup winner market.

Considering only contracts exclusively related to the final, trading volume reached approximately $336 million. The most active markets during the final included:

• World Cup winner;
• Correct score;
• Number of goals;
• Full-time result;
• Method of victory;
• Total goals;
• Both teams to score.

This diversity demonstrates how prediction markets have evolved beyond simply forecasting match winners. Users traded contracts covering virtually every relevant aspect of the game, significantly expanding opportunities for participation during the tournament.

The results observed during the 2026 FIFA World Cup show that prediction markets have moved beyond being an experimental segment to becoming a prominent part of the global betting industry. More than simply setting financial records, the tournament demonstrated the scale to which prediction markets have now grown. Millions of users participated in trading, billions of dollars changed hands in contracts and platforms such as Kalshi proved capable of sustaining activity levels comparable to those of the largest US sportsbooks.

Polymarket expands globally as new competitors enter the market

While Kalshi was one of the standout platforms during the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Polymarket became the leading international prediction market platform throughout the tournament. According to figures released after the competition, the company generated approximately $10.8 billion on its international platform and an additional $3.5 billion through its newly launched US-focused operation. Combined, the two platforms recorded around $14.3 billion in World Cup related trading volume.

The World Cup winner market once again proved to be the main attraction. On its own, this contract generated approximately $4.32 billion in trading during the tournament, confirming strong user interest in long-term prediction markets that reflected changing probabilities throughout more than a month of competition.

Although Polymarket operates under a different regulatory framework from Kalshi, the performance of both platforms indicates that prediction markets are no longer a niche product and are now competing directly with traditional sportsbooks.

The World Cup accelerated the arrival of new competitors

The sector’s growth also created opportunities for new entrants. One of the most closely watched launches during the World Cup was Rothera, a platform backed by Robinhood and investment firm Susquehanna. Launched in June shortly before the tournament began, the company generated approximately $2 billion in trading during its first month of operation and captured an estimated 7 per cent share of the US prediction market. The performance was considered remarkable for a newly launched platform and demonstrated that demand is strong enough to support additional operators in a rapidly expanding sector.

Another notable development came from the institutional market. Trading firm DRW, Kalshi’s parent company, announced the creation of a trading desk dedicated exclusively to prediction markets, signalling that major financial market participants increasingly view the segment as a new asset class.

According to an estimate by H2 Gambling Capital, prediction markets accounted for approximately 27 per cent of activity comparable to sports betting in the United States during the World Cup. The figure is particularly significant compared with the beginning of the year. In January, the consultancy estimated this share at around 9 per cent. Within just a few months, it had nearly tripled.

Although the comparison does not represent a direct division of the sports betting market, since sportsbooks and prediction markets use different methodologies to measure financial activity, the analysis highlights the rapid expansion of this new trading model. In practice, an increasing number of consumers alternated between traditional betting platforms and prediction markets during the tournament.

Another important indicator came from mobile app intelligence company Apptopia. During the second half of June, Kalshi recorded a 36 per cent increase in daily active users. This occurred at the same time traditional betting apps such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook began experiencing declining activity after the World Cup’s initial peak.

Apptopia also identified a shift in consumer behaviour during the tournament. Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for approximately 78.5 per cent of downloads among the six leading sports betting and prediction market apps analysed during June. The figures suggest that a significant proportion of new users tried prediction market platforms for the first time during the competition.

Traditional sportsbooks also posted record results

The growth of prediction markets did not come at the expense of traditional sportsbooks. On the contrary, leading US operators also reported record performances driven by the World Cup. DraftKings said the tournament generated a 650 per cent increase in total bets compared with the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The company also recorded what it described as the most bet on football match in the history of DraftKings Sportsbook.

The final between Spain and Argentina attracted more than two million bets. The data also revealed interesting trends in customer behaviour. Although the US national team did not reach the later stages of the tournament, it attracted the most bets among DraftKings customers throughout the World Cup. Among individual players, Lionel Messi generated the highest betting volume, mirroring his prominence on Kalshi.

Growth was not limited to traditional sportsbooks. The company reported that its DraftKings Predictions platform, focused on prediction markets, achieved record trading volume and active customer numbers during the World Cup final. The results show that even operators historically focused on sports betting are investing in prediction markets products. The strategy aims to serve users who want to trade probabilities in real time without necessarily relying on the traditional fixed odds betting model.

BetMGM also reported that the 2026 tournament was the largest FIFA World Cup in the operator’s history. Although the company did not disclose detailed betting figures, it said the tournament set new internal records for betting activity and customer participation.

A World Cup of historic numbers

Beyond technological innovation and the growth of prediction markets, the tournament itself established new sporting and commercial records. Played for the first time with 48 national teams, the competition featured 104 matches, making it the largest FIFA World Cup in history. According to FIFA estimates, more than 6.6 million fans attended matches held across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Global viewership also reached unprecedented levels. Television and digital broadcasts attracted approximately six billion viewers, while social media further expanded the tournament’s reach through videos, live streams, content creators and online communities.

From a financial perspective, the tournament also set new financial records. FIFA estimates that the 2026 FIFA World Cup generated approximately $15 billion in revenue, driven by broadcasting rights, sponsorships, advertising, ticket sales, licensing and hospitality.

This article was first published on the Portuguese SiGMA News page on 27 July 2026.

In Mexico City, from September 1 to 3, 2026, North America meets Latin America. SiGMA North America welcomes 4,000 attendees for three days of business, insights, and inspiration for startups. Real insights. Real business. Book your spot.