Macau 2025 GGR outpaces forecasts, CreditSights reports
Macau’s gaming industry has outperformed expectations in 2025, exceeding official targets. According to an analysis report shared by CreditSights, total gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP 247.4 billion (€28.4 billion), up nine percent year on year. The result exceeded the government’s original full-year target of MOP 240 billion, as well as a more conservative revised forecast of MOP 228 billion.
The result means Macau’s gaming market has now recovered to around 85 percent of its pre-pandemic level recorded in 2019. Analysts said the outcome reflects a steady return of high-value play alongside a broader rebound in visitor arrivals.
December short of expectations
Momentum strengthened towards the end of the year. GGR in December reached MOP 20.9 billion (€2.4 billion), marking year-on-year growth of 15 percent. While the figure fell short of market expectations of 18 percent, it still represented approximately 91 percent of December 2019 levels.
A breakdown of the data shows a clear divergence between market segments. The VIP sector was the main driver of growth in 2025, with revenue rising by 24 percent compared with the previous year. VIP gaming accounted for 27 percent of total GGR, up from 24 percent in 2024.
By contrast, the mass market remained the largest contributor, generating 73 percent of full-year gaming revenue, but expanded at a more modest rate of four percent. Growth in high-end play accelerated in the final quarter, with VIP revenue in the fourth quarter alone rising by 45 percent year on year.
Analysts at CreditSights linked the surge in VIP activity to improving wealth conditions in the region. Equity markets in both China and Hong Kong performed strongly in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index climbing by 30 percent and the CSI 300 gaining 27 percent, helping to boost confidence and discretionary spending among affluent players.
Visitors at an all-time high
Visitor numbers also reached new highs. Macau recorded 40.1 million arrivals in 2025, the highest annual total on record and equivalent to one hundred and two percent of pre-pandemic levels. December 2025 saw 3.6 million visitors, an increase of eighteen percent compared with a year earlier.
Mainland Chinese were again the primary visitors, accounting for 72 percent of total visitors. Travel under the Individual Visit Scheme rose sharply, with visitor numbers increasing by 26 percent to 15.4 million. Arrivals from outside Greater China also improved, rising by 14 percent to 2.8 million, supported by strong growth from Thailand and Japan.
Looking forward to 2026
Despite higher footfall, average spending declined. GGR per visitor fell by five percent year on year to MOP 6,174 (€710) for the whole year, while December’s figure dropped by three percent to MOP 5,834 (€670). Analysts said this reflected a higher proportion of general tourists compared with active casino players.
The Macau SAR government has set a cautious GGR target of MOP 236 billion (€27.1 billion) for 2026, signalling a year-on-year decline of about 4.6 percent. Analysts still expect growth to continue, but say momentum could soften later in the year as comparisons become tougher in the second half of 2026.
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