The Dutch online gambling market shrank by almost 20 per cent in 2025, according to the regulator’s 2025 annual report. But the figure likely to cause the greatest unease in the industry is not the contraction itself. It is the widening gap between the number of players using the licensed market and the share of revenue the market now retains.
In the first half of 2025, around 94 per cent of players gambled exclusively with legal operators. Yet licensed operators accounted for only 49 per cent of gross gambling revenue, down from 51 per cent at the end of 2024. In other words, the minority of players who do not gamble exclusively with licensed operators account for a disproportionately large share of gross gambling revenue. That gap is likely to intensify scrutiny of whether Dutch policy has made the regulated market less competitive.
The figures arrive after months of criticism from parts of the licensed sector, which argue that cumulative restrictions on advertising, sponsorship and spending have made the legal market harder to sustain. In July, the Netherlands completed its ban on sports sponsorship by gambling companies. The KSA said “almost all public expressions have disappeared”, with only minor breaches such as club webshops still selling merchandise carrying gambling logos.
The regulator now estimates the illegal online market was worth €617m in the first half of 2025, against €600m for the legal market.
A market split in two
The licensed market has often argued that consumer awareness matters when advertising rules are tightened, saying operators need enough visibility for players to recognise the legal offer and distinguish it from illegal sites. Yet the new figures suggest the problem is not simply one of visibility. If around 94 per cent of players still gamble exclusively with licensed operators, most consumers clearly know where the legal market is. The gap instead points to a smaller group of players choosing to bypass the regulated market, possibly to avoid deposit limits, affordability checks and other restrictions.
The channelisation gap carries an uncomfortable implication for regulators and operators alike: the players most likely to spend heavily are more likely to be found outside the licensed system.
The KSA, the Dutch regulator, in its 2025 annual report, admitted the decline in revenue channelisation may be linked to players moving to illegal sites after new protection measures were introduced in October 2024. Those measures were designed to reduce harm, including lower net deposit thresholds and stricter affordability checks. The authority described the trend as “a worrying development”, adding that players in the illegal market are “much less well protected”.
That echoes concerns raised last year by Peter-Paul de Goeij, founder of the Netherlands Online Gambling Association, who said: “Official figures show that only 49 per cent of online gambling revenue goes to licensed operators, meaning the majority flows into unregulated, illegal channels.” Speaking at a gambling conference in Sweden, he described the Dutch position as a “disaster”.
Pressure on the legal market
The regulator’s report leaves little doubt about where its priorities lie. It says 2025 was focused on broader protection against gambling harm, not only financial losses but also damage to “mental health” and to “relationships and social contacts”. The KSA also intensified supervision of operators’ duty of care, issued millions in fines to licensed and unlicensed companies, and expanded its crackdown on the infrastructure used by illegal operators.
Its new “Disconnect” project, its latest weapon against the black market, has targeted affiliates, payment providers, software suppliers and hosting firms. According to the regulator, joint reporting of illegal ads to Google sharply reduced their visibility from August onwards, while some large game suppliers made their products inaccessible to illegal sites through geoblocking.
At the same time, the regulated market has clearly slowed. Based on 2025 levies, the KSA said the online sector contracted by 18.5 per cent last year, compared with growth of 4.9 per cent in 2024. It linked that reversal to its own October 2024 policy changes to limit high spending, as well as the gambling tax increase introduced in January 2025.
The regulator has become more interventionist, more explicit about gambling harm and more aggressive against illegal supply. But the headline numbers suggest that the black market is still capturing a disproportionate share of the money.
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