Affiliate sector warns Danish gambling reform threatens its survival
A Danish government proposal to overhaul gambling rules, including a ban on revenue-share affiliate marketing based on losses or turnover, has triggered a sharp response from the affiliate industry. Critics warn the changes could wipe out long-established business models and undermine one of Europe’s most successful regulated gambling markets.
At the centre of the dispute is a draft bill to amend the Danish Gambling Act. The ban would apply not only to future contracts but would also put an end to agreements already in force. While the proposal does not outlaw affiliate marketing outright, it would prohibit revenue- and loss-based commission models, effectively dismantling the business model on which most Danish gambling affiliates rely.
Affiliates say that the decision threatens years of investment made under rules that have been stable since Denmark liberalised its gambling market in 2012. The Ministry of Taxation argues the reform is necessary to strengthen consumer protection and reduce incentives that could encourage excessive gambling. Industry figures, however, question both the legal basis and the policy logic behind the move.
Pragmatism and prohibition
The affiliate backlash sits uneasily alongside the regulatory philosophy repeatedly articulated by Anders Dorph, director of the Danish Gambling Authority, Spillemyndigheden. In a recent interview with SiGMA News, Dorph stressed that Denmark’s approach to gambling regulation has long been rooted in pragmatism rather than prohibition.
“Outright prohibition simply doesn’t work,” Dorph said. “Our goal is harm minimisation, not an unrealistic attempt to ban human behaviour.”
Dorph has consistently argued that the success of Denmark’s gambling model depends on keeping the licensed market attractive enough to compete with unlicensed operators. “If you put too many restrictions on the legal market, you make it impossible for them to compete,” he said, warning that illegal operators, which do not pay tax or follow marketing rules, are always able to offer more aggressive conditions.
Existing contracts caught by 2027 ban
Under the bill, amendments including the new prohibition on commission-based settlement would enter into force on 1 January 2027. From that date, revenue-share agreements tied to player losses or turnover would become illegal, even if they were lawfully concluded years earlier.
In a detailed consultation response submitted to the Ministry of Taxation, Benjamin Nørregaard, a veteran affiliate marketer and founder of the comparison site Casinolisten, described the proposal as an extraordinary breach of legal certainty.
“The most far-reaching and legally critical element of the bill is that, without a transitional arrangement, it makes all legal and validly concluded agreements since 2012 invalid overnight,” he wrote. “This is an intervention of a quite extraordinary nature.”
Nørregaard argues that affiliates have built entire businesses on the back of revenue-share contracts that were explicitly permitted when Denmark opened its online gambling market. According to his submission, the consequences of cancelling those agreements would include “significant financial losses in the event of the lapse of future rights”, legal disputes over unpaid commissions, and investments rendered worthless.
“The agreements have been entered into in full confidence in the legislator and have formed the basis for investments, earnings, and multi-year commercial arrangements,” he said. “Such an intervention cannot be regarded as constitutionally tenable and requires a particularly weighty and clear legal basis.”
A central concern is whether the proposal amounts to a form of indirect expropriation. Nørregaard points to Article 73 of the Danish Constitution, which protects economic rights and generally requires compensation when the state interferes with them. In his view, the bill offers neither a proper legal analysis nor a meaningful transition period.
“An intervention that, with six months’ notice (from the adoption of the Act to its entry into force on 1 January 2027), renders this income basis illegal cannot be regarded as a genuine transitional arrangement,” he wrote in his consultation response to the Ministry of Taxation.
Industry fears and legal parallels
Beyond the legal arguments, affiliates warn of severe commercial fallout. In comments to SiGMA News, Nørregaard said the proposal would hit companies that had invested for more than a decade on the assumption that the regulatory framework was predictable.
“The proposal targets companies that, over 14 years, have made significant investments in technology, content, marketing, and employees in reliance on the current regulation,” he said. “These investments risk becoming worthless overnight.”
For some businesses, the consequences would be immediate and drastic. “For businesses with employees and stable revenue, this proposal practically means that their revenue could drop to zero starting January 1, 2027,” he added.
Nørregaard also disputes the government’s underlying rationale. The draft bill is intended to curb incentives that could push affiliates to encourage players to gamble more heavily. But he argues that this misunderstands how established affiliates operate.
“Established affiliates do not have access to player data nor the capacity to influence player behaviour after a referral,” he said. “They are not linked to ROFUS, have no insight into players’ personal information, and are strictly forbidden from contacting them directly.”
“Therefore, the claim that affiliates can ‘incite’ players to increase their gambling lacks both a factual and regulatory basis when considering the type of businesses genuinely affected by this intervention,” he said.
In his consultation response, Nørregaard also raises broader market concerns. Affiliates, he argues, have played a key role in Denmark’s channelling strategy by directing players to licensed operators. Removing their established revenue models could weaken that system rather than strengthen it.
“A ban will not eliminate the demand for information about gambling operators, but simply move marketing to foreign and non-regulated players who are not subject to Danish rules on responsible marketing,” he warned.
A test for Denmark’s gambling model
For years, Denmark has been cited as a European success story, combining high taxation with a relatively high channelling rate. That position is no longer secure. Recent estimates suggest Denmark’s channelling rate is at risk. The Danish Gambling Authority has acknowledged growing pressure from illegal operators and the limits of enforcement tools such as DNS blocking.
Critics of the affiliate ban argue that weakening legal marketing channels risks accelerating that trend. In his submission, Nørregaard warns that if professional, compliance-focused affiliates disappear, “less regulated foreign affiliates will dominate the market and increase the exposure of illegal providers”.
Subscribe HERE to SiGMA’s Top 10 News countdown and SiGMA’s weekly newsletter to stay up to date with all the latest iGaming News from the biggest iGaming community in the world and benefit from subscriber-only offers.
