French regulator warns prediction markets fuel an 'illusion of competence'
France’s gambling regulator has issued a warning about the boom in prediction markets, describing platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi as illegal in France and urging users to stay away.
In a press release, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) said prediction markets may look like a new kind of information tool, a place where crowds “price” the likelihood of elections, wars or sporting results, but, in the French regulator’s eyes, they sit squarely in the world of unlicensed gambling, with risks that are “amplified” precisely because they operate outside the French legal framework.
The ANJ’s stance fits its long-running campaign against the “normalisation” of gambling: France keeps its market tightly closed to non-regulated products, and the regulator insists that anything outside the licensed perimeter should not be allowed to settle into everyday consumption. But the numbers circulating in the sector suggest a growing gap between that philosophy and consumer behaviour. Industry estimates cited in France put the illegal online market at about 5.4 million players in 2025, versus 3.5 million in the regulated market, with around €2bn in gross gaming revenue, a sign, proponents of tougher enforcement argue, that many consumers are already using offshore platforms to access products France has chosen not to regulate.
From ‘investment’ to illusion: why the ANJ worries
The ANJ argues that prediction platforms are selling themselves to people who do not think of themselves as gamblers, presenting the activity as closer to investing than betting. In the regulator’s view, that framing is itself dangerous, because it encourages what it calls an “illusion of competence”.
“The marketing of prediction market platforms aims to attract a new population previously insensitive to casinos and classic sports betting,” it says, “who considers these platforms as an investment option.” It adds: “This perception of the ‘predictive market’ as a form of ‘investment’ reinforces an illusion of competence: the more the user believes they are competent, the more they play and the more addiction takes hold.”
The ANJ also lists features it says are “amplified” compared with regulated French operators: “platforms open 24/7”, “no integrated betting limiters beyond the sums committed”, “no time limit”, and “no identity control to verify age”. It warns that the mix of constant access and viral online distribution “generates a significant addictive loop”.
The regulator goes further, pointing to integrity and safety risks that have become a global argument against “event betting” in geopolitics and security. “Beyond addiction risks,” it says, “other risks relating to market manipulation or opinion may encourage harmful acts.” The reasoning is simple: “as soon as an actor can bet on an event and influence its probability, the market creates a financial incentive to provoke or accelerate negative outcomes.”
A French red line: the licensed perimeter
France has a tightly defined online gambling perimeter: sports betting, poker and horse-race betting are regulated; online casino remains prohibited. Prediction markets, the ANJ argues, are not some separate category waiting to be discovered, they are “not authorised” and are “considered illegal gambling sites”.
That assessment has had immediate operational consequences. The ANJ says “the main actors have, at the request of the ANJ, put in place geo-blocking, thus preventing any gambling from France (outside VPN).”
Pauline Hot, the ANJ’s Director General, has described the institution’s mission in similarly explicit terms. “We have to take into account public health, with player protection at the heart of our mission,” she told SiGMA News. She is also wary of the cultural drift that turns gambling into background entertainment. “Even if gambling is authorised and regulated, it should not become a product of everyday consumption,” she said. “Playing is allowed, but it carries risks.”
Polymarket, Kalshi and the global patchwork
The ANJ’s notice also situates France inside a wider, messy international picture, where regulators disagree on whether prediction markets should be treated as derivatives, gambling, or something in between.
It cites Polymarket’s rise during the US election, saying the platform recorded “a record volume of $3.6bn on the electoral market” and “correctly anticipated the victory of Donald Trump.” It notes that “some analysts or media” now view Polymarket as “a reliable political analysis tool” alongside polls.
But the ANJ’s bottom line is that the legal classification remains decisive. In France, it says, the authority concluded in November 2024 that Polymarket’s services were “likely to be regarded as unauthorised gambling offers,” prompting discussions with its Panama-based operator and the geo-blocking now in place. Kalshi, it adds, has implemented the same type of block.
Across Europe, the ANJ lists a long run of jurisdictions that have blocked access to Polymarket on licensing grounds, including Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal.
Outside Europe, it points to Australia placing Polymarket on a blacklist on 14 August 2025, and to Colombia’s regulator asking internet providers to block the site in September 2025. In the US, the ANJ describes a more contested scene, stating that Polymarket was authorised by the CFTC to offer bets to US residents in November 2025, while also noting that some states have taken legal action arguing the markets amount to illegal gambling.
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